¡Buenos dias! A satellite pass last evening measured light southeast winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, and all of the most recent numerical model forecasts show ligtht background flow will continue today. Infrared satellite images early this morning showed some high clouds moving in from the west, and another area of fog and low clouds approaching from the east (see nerd note below). Model forecasts continue to be in good agreement that we will see a tightening of the surface pressure gradient over BCS on Tuesday, with north background flow returning. The big wild card for Tuesday continues to be the thickness of high cloud cover, but at least one of the models shows indications of some thin spots in the cloud shield, so we should see enough filtered sun to help partially activate our local thermal. Model forecasts now show sunny skies will likely return on Wednesday and with ample north background flow, we should see a windy afternoon. Several of the models show the surface pressure gradient weakening a bit on Thursday, but with another sunny day expected we may see a marginally rideable day. The background north flow is then forecast to increase again on Friday into Saturday, with solid north flow lasting through the Semana Santa weekend.
- Today…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
- Tuesday…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 14-16 mph.
- Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
- Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
Nerd Note: The dramatic low clouds and fog that we’ve seen the last couple of mornings is a sea fog which is formed as warm and moist air flows over relatively cool ocean water. The sea suface temperature near La Ventana is still relatively cool, at around 71 F, but to the southeast the sea surface temperatures are already in the mid 70s (see NOAA graphic below). The light southeast winds that we’ve seen over the past couple of days (shown in the Haiyang satellite image) have brought relatively warm and moist air from the southeast over the still relatively cool waters farther north near us. As this happens, the low levels are chilled to near the dewpoint (low 70s), the air becomes saturated, and fog forms. A NOAA satellite loop this morning showed another band of low clouds and fog moving our way early this morning, so we may see a repeat of the mid-morning fog.
