¡Buenos dias! Satellite passes last evening measured light and variable winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, and all of the latest numerical model forecasts show light background flow will continue through Friday. Models are still on track with a fresh pulse of north background flow arriving on Saturday, with sufficient north flow likely continuing through Monday. The big wild card for Saturday through Monday will be the thickness of high clouds. At this point, it looks like enough filtered sun will make it through on Saturday to help fire up our local thermal, but clouds may thicken on Sunday and we could see lighter wind…stay tuned. The high clouds should begin to thin a bit on Monday, so we will likely see one more rideable day. A light wind regime is forecast to return on Tuesday, with long-range forecasts showing a long stretch of light onshore flow through the following week.
- Today…Partly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
- Friday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
- Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Sunday…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Tuesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
- Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
Nerd Note: As we start the month of May one week from today, it’s a good time to remind ourselves that the eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30. The eastern Pacific basin extends from Mexico and Central America westward to 140°W. Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average eastern Pacific hurricane season has 15 named storms. An early forecast from the Mexican Naval Ministry (Semar) is that we will see an above normal year, with 18 named storms (see chart below). Forecasts show sea surface temperatures rising to 1 to 2 degrees C above normal in the genesis area to our southeast (see figures below), and this could lead to more and stronger systems this season. The good news is that around 70% of our total yearly rainfall is from tropical cyclones, so we may see some much needed rain in BCS this year.
For those that are here through the summer and early fall, I will pass along forecasts from the National Hurricane Center in Miami (the official World Meteorological Organization Hurricane Center for the Eastern Pacific Basin) through special MasViento forecasts for any tropical cyclones that directly threaten our area.
