¡Buenos dias! Early morning observations and big changes in the model forecasts mean that the forecast for today is a low confidence one. While almost all of the most recent model runs continue to show a new pulse of north background flow will reach us today, infrared satellite loops show significant mid and high-level clouds streaming in from the southwest. Some of the model forecasts have become more bullish on the thickness of cloud cover for this afternoon, and that could significantly dampen our local thermal. The HRRR model, which as of last evening was still forecasting 16-20 mph winds over the bay this afternoon, has done an about face and is now showing only a brief, anemic midday pulse of north flow which then quickly becomes light easterly. That said, recent satellite trends show some significant thin spots in the upstream cloud cover, so I’m going to be optimistic and say we will see enough filtered sun to give us a rideable day. There are some indications that the cloud cover will thin on Sunday, and if we see at least some filtered sun we will likely have a windy afternoon. Sufficient north background flow should continue through Monday, and with only a few thin, high clouds expected, we should see a significant thermal boost. Light background flow will return on Tuesday, with only light onshore breezes expected during the afternoon. Long-range model forecasts show the potential for a relatively weak pulse of north flow on Wednesday and again on Friday, but at this point confidence is low.
- Today…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph?
- Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Tuesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
- Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
- Thursday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
- Friday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.