¡Buenos dias! Well, yesterday was really wierd. Even though an afternoon satellite pass confirmed model forecasts of 15 knot north background flow coming into the bay, and we had a nearly cloudless sky, our local thermal was a virtual no show as 10 minute sustained winds at the campground only peaked at 16-18 mph. I don’t have an explanation for why we didn’t see much stronger winds yesterday…sometimes the atmosphere will still throw a real curve ball! A satellite pass late last evening confirmed that the norte has arrived, with 20-25 knot winds measured from Mulege southward to the East Cape. With such strong background flow, our local thermal usually doesn’t add much to the windspeed, but it will likely pull much of the west component out of the wind by this afternoon. That said, northern beaches may see some wind-shadowing as the wind direction remains nearly due north. Models show the norte peaking tonight (see nerd note below) then gradually subsiding on Monday. Several model forecasts are showing just enough north flow remaining on Tuesday to help trigger our local wind machine and bring us one more rideable afternoon before a long stretch of light wind days starts Wednesday…possibly lasting into early next week.
- Today…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
- Monday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
- Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
- Thursday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
- Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
- Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
Nerd Note: Model forecasts are in good agreement that the norte will peak tonight, with NNW background flow just north of the bay of around 25 knots. An interesting phenomena is forecast to occur by the HRRR model, which has a 3 km resolution with the ability to resolve much smaller scale features than the global models like the ECMWF and GFS. As the strong norte winds approach the Cacachilas Mountains, they bank up against that barrier and the wind speed slows significantly as the flow is forced up and over the mountain barrier. The model also shows a nearly constant temperature with height up through around 4000 feet (see the red line in the second graphic), which is very stable so as the air is forced up over the mountains, it cools and becomes much ‘heavier’ than the surrounding relatively warm atmosphere. The air then sinks rapidly on the lee side of the Cacachilas Mountains and accelerates into what is called a mountain wave wind. The HRRR model is forecasting wind gusts of nearly 40 mph tonight particularly in areas just downslope of the mountains (El Sargento).
