¡Buenos dias! Wow!! For a time yesterday’s superthermal significantly exceeded my forecast of 16-20 mph. The gauge at the campground showed that while the 10 minute average wind speed was close for much of the afternoon, with winds of 18-22 mph from 12:30-3:30, a big surge occurred from around 1:20-2:00 pm with sustained winds reaching 24-26 mph and gusts up to 33 mph (see graph below). A series of scatterometer satellite passes measured 10-15 knot winds over the southern Sea of Cortez around midnight., and all of the latest model forecasts show solid north background flow will continue today. While we may not see another superthermal, infrared satellite loops early this morning showed another sunny day ahead, so our local thermal will likely be in peak form. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that the wind party will continue into the upcoming weekend, as surface high pressure builds into the interior west of the U.S. and the surface pressure gradient tightens over BCS. While we may not see norte conditions with strong winds continuing overnight, sustained winds may reach into the mid 20 range both Saturday and Sunday during the afternoon. There will likely be some thin, high cloud cover at times, but we should see ample filtered sun to give us an added thermal boost as well. The background flow will weaken some by Monday, but enough should remain to give us another windy afternoon. Surface low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern U.S. on Tuesday, with our background flow becoming light. The down time will likely be short, as long-range model forecasts show surface high pressure building back into the western U.S. on Wednesday with another surge of north flow reaching BCS.
Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
Friday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
Tuesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
