Wind – January 24, 2025

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass last night around midnight measured 15 to 20 knot winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo. The latest model runs show the surface high centered over the 4-corners region of the U.S. this morning will continue to bring ample north background flow to our area today, and full sunshine will trigger a solid afternoon thermal boost as well. There are indications that some wind-shadowing may again be an issue on the northern beaches (see nerd note below). The forecast for a couple of down days Saturday and Sunday is still on track as a broad area of low pressure forms over the southwestern U.S. Pacific high pressure is forecast to begin a slow process of building into the Baja Peninsula on Monday, with the background NNW flow gradually increasing Tuesday through Thursday. The big wild card Monday through Wednesday will be the thickness of high cloud cover, but for now it does appear that some filtered sun will make it through. Sunny skies are forecast to return on Thursday, and as the surface pressure gradient continues to tighten, we may see norte conditions develop.

  • Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
  • Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
  • Sunday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
  • Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
  • Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
  • Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
  • Thursday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.

Nerd Note: The wind gauges at Rasta and the main campground yesterday showed very different conditions (see graphs below). The wind direction at Rasta hovered around 5 to 10 degrees, while at the campground it was more like 10-15 degrees. This seemingly trivial difference in wind direction had a big effect on the quality of the wind, with the graph at Rasta (left side) showing very gusty wind (personally confirmed by a really crappy session), while the graph at the campground (right side) showed steadier winds. The HRRR model forecast for today again shows a north-northwest to north wind near and just north of Rasta, and more north-northeast winds along the southern beaches. The background flow is forecast to be just a bit weaker today than the nortes of the past 3 days, so I’m hoping that our thermal may be able to pull the winds, even on the northern beaches, more to a NNE direction…we’ll see.
Note: I’m returning to the Wisuki site for tides. The tideschat.com site is once again failing to show the afternoon low tide.