Wind – January 29, 2025

¡Buenos dias! The strong background flow yesterday (see nerd note below) will be repeated today, as all available model forecasts show moderate to strong north flow continuing. Although the setup is not a classic norte one, conditions today will likely mimic a low-end norte, and with full sunshine returning, our local thermal will likely add a bit more and help pull the winds onshore. Surface high pressure centered several hundred miles west of the U.S.-Mexico border this morning is forecast to strengthen and move eastward on Thursday, with the surface pressure gradient tightening and north background flow increasing further…creating norte conditions. All of the model forecasts are in good agreement that the surface high will remain nearly stationary and only slowly weaken through Saturday. At this point it appears that enough background north flow will last through Sunday to give us one more windy afternoon. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to weaken further Monday into Tuesday, with light winds expected.

  • Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
  • Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
  • Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
  • Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph
  • Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph
  • Monday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph
  • Tuesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph

Nerd Note: The wind gauge at the campground yesterday measured 10 minute average sustained winds at 20-24 mph from around noon until 4 pm, with gusts near 30 mph…a 4 mph higher range than I forecast and kind of a head-scratcher for me (see graph below). All available model forecasts early yesterday morning showed midday background flow of 15 knots or less just east of Cerralvo, but reality was significantly higher, as there was an Oceansat satellite pass around 12:30 pm over us which measured sustained winds of 20 knots in the same location (see image below). This is a case which shows that while the numerical models are usually very accurate within the first 24 hours, there still are days where they can be significantly off.