¡Buenas tardes! As we enter into the peak of hurricane season in BCS, I want to post some information about the frequency of hurricanes here. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has assembled a history of hurricanes over both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins. Here is the link: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#ori10
The majority of landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes in BCS occur from late August until late October (note that the period of record for these maps for the Eastern Pacific Basin is 75 years).
While forecasting the long-range likelihood of a hurricane is difficult, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center does issue a Global Tropical Hazards Outlook for weeks 2 and 3 into the future. Here is the link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/…/CWlink/ghaz/index.php
This product is for general guidance only, and is not a forecast for a particular storm, but rather an outlook of the overall chances that a storm will form within a broad area. These outlooks are issued every Tuesday. The latest one shows only a slight chance for tropical cyclone formation in the East Pacific Basin during week 2, with an increased chance for week 3 as the global conditions for formation improve just south of mainland Mexico and BCS.
If a tropical storm or hurricane directly threatens BCS, I will issue daily updates based on the National Hurricane Center forecasts. Let’s hope we see 1 or 2 weak systems that will bring us some much needed rain!