La Ventana Stories

See you all again here in October. Have a great summer!

¡Buenos dias! Yesterday was like a mini-norte, as the Tempest wind gauge at Rasta measured solid sustained winds of 20-24 mph for much of the afternoon, with a gust to 34 mph. While the strong north flow of yesterday has diminished, many of the most recent numerical model forecasts show sufficient north background flow will continue today. Infrared satellite loops this morning indicated only a few thin, high clouds to our southwest, so we should see a good thermal boost this afternoon. Similar conditions are forecast for Tuesday, then we will likely see the north flow decrease on Wednesday, with only marginally rideable conditions expected. The general weather pattern favors only light onshore breezes for Thursday, but a couple of the long-range models do show a relatively weak pulse of north wind on Friday. At this point it looks like only light onshore breezes for the upcoming weekend.
This will be my last forecast for the season. WOW…it has been a truly amazing season, and I want to thank all of you who have shared such kind words of encouragement along the way. It is great fun for me to bring you this forecast each morning, and I look forward to seeing you all again here next October. Have a great summer!

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! The north pulse finally arrived yesterday at around 1:30 at Rasta, and winds peaked at 16 mph there. An ASCAT pass last evening meaured NW winds of 10 knots over the Sea of Cortez east of Cerralvo, and all of the latest numerical model forecasts are showing increasing NW background flow today. While infrared satellite loops this morning showed significant high cloud cover streaming in from the southwest, there were also some thin patches which should allow just enough sun to filter through and trigger a signficant thermal boost. Most of the model forecasts now show just enough background north flow will last through Wednesday to give us rideable days. Model solutions then start to diverge on Thursday, but the overall weather pattern suggests a return to a light wind regime.

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Early morning observations and big changes in the model forecasts mean that the forecast for today is a low confidence one. While almost all of the most recent model runs continue to show a new pulse of north background flow will reach us today, infrared satellite loops show significant mid and high-level clouds streaming in from the southwest. Some of the model forecasts have become more bullish on the thickness of cloud cover for this afternoon, and that could significantly dampen our local thermal. The HRRR model, which as of last evening was still forecasting 16-20 mph winds over the bay this afternoon, has done an about face and is now showing only a brief, anemic midday pulse of north flow which then quickly becomes light easterly. That said, recent satellite trends show some significant thin spots in the upstream cloud cover, so I’m going to be optimistic and say we will see enough filtered sun to give us a rideable day. There are some indications that the cloud cover will thin on Sunday, and if we see at least some filtered sun we will likely have a windy afternoon. Sufficient north background flow should continue through Monday, and with only a few thin, high clouds expected, we should see a significant thermal boost. Light background flow will return on Tuesday, with only light onshore breezes expected during the afternoon. Long-range model forecasts show the potential for a relatively weak pulse of north flow on Wednesday and again on Friday, but at this point confidence is low.

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph?
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured light southwest to southeast winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, and all of the most recent numerical model forecasts show we will have one more day of light winds. Model forecasts continue to be in excellent agreement that a fresh pulse of north background flow will arrive on Saturday, and with only some patchy thin, high clouds expected, we should see a good thermal boost as well. The background north flow will likely peak on Sunday, but models show the high cloud cover will become more dense, so our local thermal may be dampened a bit. Just enough north flow is forecast to remain on Monday to give us one more rideable day, and with sunny skies expected, we should see a significant thermal boost. A light wind regime is then expected to return on Tuesday and last for several days.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North to northeast winds around 10 mph later this morning, becoming east at 8-10 mph by early afternoon.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Satellite passes last evening measured light and variable winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, and all of the latest numerical model forecasts show light background flow will continue through Friday. Models are still on track with a fresh pulse of north background flow arriving on Saturday, with sufficient north flow likely continuing through Monday. The big wild card for Saturday through Monday will be the thickness of high clouds. At this point, it looks like enough filtered sun will make it through on Saturday to help fire up our local thermal, but clouds may thicken on Sunday and we could see lighter wind…stay tuned. The high clouds should begin to thin a bit on Monday, so we will likely see one more rideable day. A light wind regime is forecast to return on Tuesday, with long-range forecasts showing a long stretch of light onshore flow through the following week.

• Today…Partly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

Nerd Note: As we start the month of May one week from today, it’s a good time to remind ourselves that the eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30. The eastern Pacific basin extends from Mexico and Central America westward to 140°W. Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average eastern Pacific hurricane season has 15 named storms. An early forecast from the Mexican Naval Ministry (Semar) is that we will see an above normal year, with 18 named storms (see chart below). Forecasts show sea surface temperatures rising to 1 to 2 degrees C above normal in the genesis area to our southeast (see figures below), and this could lead to more and stronger systems this season. The good news is that around 70% of our total yearly rainfall is from tropical cyclones, so we may see some much needed rain in BCS this year.

For those that are here through the summer and early fall, I will pass along forecasts from the National Hurricane Center in Miami (the official World Meteorological Organization Hurricane Center for the Eastern Pacific Basin) through special MasViento forecasts for any tropical cyclones that directly threaten our area.

¡Buenos dias! Satellite passes last evening measured light and variable winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, and all of the most recent numerical model runs show a light wind regime will continue through Friday. Models continue to be in excellent agreement that the axis of an east-west oriented ridge of high pressure will move just north of our area on Saturday and allow north background flow to return here. Solid north flow is forecast to continue through Sunday, and possibly into Monday before a light, summer-like wind regime returns on Tuesday.

• Today…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Yesterday brought a nice bonus day to northern beaches, and the wind gauge at Rasta measured sustained winds of 14-16 mph for several hours. Southern beaches saw lighter winds, as the gauge at Baja Joe’s only showed 10-12 mph (see nerd note below). The forecast for today is another tricky one, as a couple of the models show that like yesterday, there may be just enough north background flow during the afternoon to give the northern beaches rideable wind, but others insist that the dreaded easterly winds will arrive by around noon and shut that party down. It’s a real dice roll, so my best advice is to be ready if we happen to get another bonus day up north today. Models are in much better agreement that light onshore winds will be the rule from Tuesday through Friday as the axis of an east-west oriented ridge of high pressure over the Eastern Pacific remains just to our south. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that the ridge will take a jog northward on Saturday, with solid north background flow returning here. Favorable north flow is then forecast to continue through next Monday.

• Today…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph…possibly higher on northern beaches.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

Nerd Note: Proper measurement of the wind is something that depends on the accuracy of the instrument, proper siting, and post-processing and presentation of the data. As I’ve mentioned before, the wind gauge I normally use for verification each day is located at the main campground. That gauge is a (very reliable) Davis Vantage View instrument, sited with no nearby obstructions, and the presentation of the graph was the world standard of 10 minute sustained winds. Unfortunately we lost that gauge a couple of weeks ago with the exodus to the north. A fellow kiter yesterday pointed out a website (tempestwx.com) where several Tempest weather gauges here are still listed as operational. Luckily for us there are gauges at Rasta Beach and at Baja Joe’s. The plots for Rasta and for Baja Joe’s show 5 minute lull, average, and gust readings. These are far more realistic plots than the weather underground plots, for example, the one at Rasta that shows gust and sustained winds that many times are the same reading, like the plot from yesterday (see graph below). This tends to give sustained wind readings that are typically 3-5 mph too high.

¡Buenos dias! While the gauge at Rasta Beach yesterday measured sustained winds in the mid 20 mph range with a peak gust of 32 mph, the strong background north flow we have enjoyed recently has weakened and the forecast for today has become much murkier. A Haiyang satellite pass late last evening measured NW winds of 10 knots just east of Cerralvo, but the latest batch of model forecasts disagree on how much background north flow will remain this afternoon. A couple of the more reliabe models do show sufficient north flow remaining to bring us a rideable day, but the HRRR model indicates an easterly wind will form early and quickly overwhelm any north wind. Another negative factor is infrared satellite loops show increasing high clouds to our west and model forecasts show this cloud shield quickly moving in this morning and likely at least partially dampening our local thermal. With all of that in mind, odds favor a down day today, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of hours of rideable wind early this afternoon, especially on northern beaches. The overall background flow is forecast to become more westerly tonight into Tuesday morning, with only light onshore breezes expected here during the afternoon. A light wind regime is then likely to persist through at least Friday, with long-range model forecasts showing some possiblity for a weak north pulse Saturday into Sunday.

• Today…Increasing high clouds. Northeast to east wind 10-12 mph….possibly higher on northern beaches.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Partly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Partly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
  Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.

¡Buenos dias and Happy Easter! A pass by the Oceansat satellite just after midnight measured solid 15 knot NW winds near Cerralvo as a late season surface high pressure system centered near the 4-corners region of the U.S. continued to produce unusually strong background flow over BCS. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed another perfectly sunny day ahead, so again our local thermal will be firing on all cylinders. Model forecasts show the surface high will weaken on Monday, but enough north background flow should remain to give us a rideable day. Tuesday continues to look like a transition day, with only marginally rideable conditions. A light wind regime is then forecast to form on Wednesday and continue through at least Friday. Long-range models show some hope for a fairly weak north pulse next weekend.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Wednesday…Partly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Partly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.