La Ventana Stories

¡Buenos dias! An ASCAT pass last evening measured 20 to 25 knot winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, and all of this morning’s model runs show the norte will continue today. There may be some wind shadowing at the northern beaches, with holey, gusty conditions. The norte will likely continue for a third day on Thursday as strong surface high pressure centered over southern British Columbia this morning will build southeastward into the 4-corners region of the U.S. and reinforce the already tight surface pressure gradient over BCS. The norte should ease on Friday as the surface high to our north weakens, but ample north background flow will remain to give us another windy day. Global models continue to be in excellent agreement that surface low pressure will rapidly form over the southwestern U.S. Friday night into Saturday, and the north flow over BCS will collapse, with only light onshore breezes expected. Similar conditions will likely last through Sunday, then Pacific high pressure should begin to build back into the Baja Peninsula on Monday with north flow increasing. At this point it looks like sufficient north background flow and filtered sunshine will be enough to produce kiteable conditions again on Tuesday.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An ASCAT pass late last evening showed the leading edge of the norte had reached as far south as Loreto, with 25 knot winds measured over the Sea of Cortez from there northward. Some of the wind gauges here were already measuring wind gusts in the mid 20s early this morning, and all of the most recent model forecasts show norte conditions developing here today. As is typical for the first day of a norte, we will likely see some west component to the wind, with variable, gusty conditions near shore with the strongest winds staying a distance offshore. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed patches of high clouds (see nerd note below) moving in from the southwest, but the thickest cloud cover should remain to our north. Models continue to show a reinforcing surface high will build into the interior west from British Columbia on Wednesday and keep a tight surface pressure gradient over BCS. Strong north background flow will likely continue through Thursday, then east a bit on Friday as the surface high centered far to our north weakens. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that as an elongated surface low forms over the southwestern U.S. on Saturday, our background flow will become very light. The low to our north will likely linger through Sunday, then long-range model forecasts show surface high pressure again building into BCS…possibly as early as Monday.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North/northwest wind 20-24 mph (variable and very gusty near shore).
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

Nerd Note: Many of you posted pictures of some very strange cloud formations yesterday (see below). These are known as cavum, or hole punch clouds. They are formed as super-cooled water droplets in high-level clouds freeze.
Pure liquid water freezes at a temperature well below 0 degrees Celsius (32 Fahrenheit), and this commonly leads to super-cooled liquid clouds. Here is a great explanation from the BBC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRGYhkr-5sw
What we witnessed yesterday was likely caused as a jet flew through supercooled liquid clouds. Impurities in the jet exhaust acted as freezing nuclei and ice crystals rapidly formed, thereby changing the appearance of the cloud field. You can see both a jet track and a ‘punch hole’ formed as ice crystals scavenged up surrounding supercooled liquid droplets in the stock pictures below.

¡Buenos dias! Multiple polar-orbiting satellite passes last evening measured 15 knot winds over the Sea of Cortez east of Cerralvo, but all of the most recent model forecasts show the background flow weakening this morning to below the threshold to activate our wind machine. Our down time will be short, as strong surface high pressure will build into the 4-corners area of the U.S. on Tuesday, with norte conditions developing here. The norte will likely last through Wednesday, as a reinforcing area of high pressure moves from the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. into Idaho and keeps a very tight surface pressure gradient in place over BCS. Although there will likely be times of thin, high clouds both Tuesday and Wednesday, the primary driver of our winds will be the norte so a slightly dampened thermal shouldn’t make any difference. Sunny skies are forecast to return on Thursday, and although the norte should ease, we will likely see another windy afternoon. The surface high centered far to our north will weaken on Friday, but ample north background flow will continue and team up with full sunshine to give us another good day. All of the long-range models are in good agreement that surface low pressure will rapidly form over the southwestern U.S. on Saturday, with our background flow becoming light. The low will likely linger to our north through Sunday, with another down day likely. Looking farther into the following week, both the European and American long-range models show north flow returning on Monday the 27th, with another long stretch of windy days looking likely.

• Today…Some morning high clouds, then becoming sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

Nerd Note: A massive arctic airmass stretching from the east coast of the U.S. into British Columbia this morning will produce a variety of hazardous weather over much of the U.S. over the next few days. Extreme cold warnings stretched from the upper Midwest into southwestern Texas, with cold weather advisories covering much of the remainder of the country from the Rockies eastward to the Atlantic coast. The very strong pressure gradient over southern California will lead to extreme fire weather conditions over parts of southern California today and Tuesday, where Santa Ana winds will gust to 60-80 mph. Farther east, an extremely rare snowstorm is forecast the I-10 corridor stretching from Houston to New Orleans where 4-6 inches of snow looks likely on Tuesday.

¡Buenos dias! Several overnight satellite passes measured solid 15 knot NNW winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, and the newest model runs indicate similar wind speeds will last through this afternoon. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed a band of high clouds again streaming in from the southwest. While clouds will partially dampen our local thermal, there are some indications we could see some clearing for a time around midday which should give us at least a partial thermal boost. Nearly all of the forecast models show the surface pressure gradient weakening substantially tomorrow, with the background north flow falling to just below the threshold for activating our wind machine so for now it looks like a marginal day. Models forecasts are in good agreement that a strong surface high pressure system will build southward from Idaho into the 4-corners region of the U.S. on Tuesday and create the ideal setup for a strong norte here. Models are also in good agreement that a reinforcing shot of high pressure will move from far southwestern Canada into Idaho on Wednesday and help preserve the tight surface pressure gradient over BCS. The norte will slowly ebb on Thursday, but full sunshine should add a good thermal boost so it looks like another windy afternoon. The surface high to our north will weaken on Friday but ample north background flow should continue. All of the available model guidance shows a very weak wind regime setting up over BCS next Saturday as a broad area of low pressure forms over the southwestern U.S., with only light onshore breezes during the afternoon.

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured 10-15 knot NNW winds just east of Cerralvo,, and the latest model forecasts are in good agreement that similar background flow will continue today. Infrared satellite loops early this morning indicated that the high cloud cover of the past several days was thinning, and we should see full sunshine by mid morning, setting the stage for a solid thermal boost this afternoon. Unfortunately high clouds will again creep into BCS on Sunday, and they may significantly dampen our local thermal. That said, model forecasts show we may see a few thin spots in the cloud cover, and with a relatively tight surface pressure gradient, we should see strong enough background flow to give us a windy afternoon. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to weaken significantly on Monday, but a couple of the models show just enough background north flow will continue to couple with filtered sunshine and give us another rideable day. Strong surface high pressure is forecast to build into the 4-corners region of the U.S. on Tuesday and set up a classic situation for a norte here. While the windiest day will likely be Tuesday, low-end norte conditions may last into Thursday as the surface pressure gradient remains tight over BCS. Long-range model forecasts show significant variability going into next weekend, but overall it looks like moderate to strong north flow will continue through at least Friday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Partly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

Note: For the tide forecast, I’m switching back to the tideschart.com site from wisuki. Last week it wasn’t showing the afternoon low tides, but it seems to be working again.

¡Buenos dias! An ASCAT pass last evening measured 15 knot NNW winds over the Sea of Cortez east of Cerralvo, and model forecasts show a ridge of high pressure centered just to our north will provide ample north background flow again today. We got lucky yesterday and saw some substantial thin spots in the high cloud cover, with 10 minute average sustained winds at the campground peaking at 17 to 19 mph. The strength of the thermal today will again be highly dependent on the thickness of the clouds. Models show some hints that we may see just enough filtered sun to at least partially activate our local thermal, so I’ll be optimistic. Models are in excellent agreement that Saturday will see a return of full sunshine, and with the surface pressure gradient forecast to tighten, all the ingredients are there for a windy afternoon. The subtropical jet will once again bring high clouds back into our region on Sunday, but with solid north background flow continuing, we should see a rideable day. Forecast models are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient will weaken over BCS on Monday, but on the other hand, models show only a few, thin high clouds so we should continue our windy streak. The surface pressure gradient is again forecast to tighten on Tuesday, and at this point it looks like we will see only some thin cloud cover so we should see a windy day. At this point model forecasts are in fairly good agreement that solid north background flow will continue on Wednesday and Thursday.

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

SWAG…SWAG….SWAG! Our good friends Ken and Donna Freed have again created some amazing MasViento swag to help benefit No Mas Basura! Today we will be selling all-black t-shirts ($20) and super-cool baseball caps ($25) at the No Mas Basura recycling day on the west side (uphill) of the Farmers’ Market. ALL profits go to benefit the ongoing work of No Mas Basura.

In addition we will be selling tickets and t-shirts for the annual Baja Beach Blues concert on February 12th at Carol and Willie’s beachfront home. It’ll be another year of amazing talent, including Grammy award nominated Teresa James and Grammy award winner Terry Townson…all benefiting No Mas Basura.

¡Buenos dias! The forecast for today is a low-confidence one. An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured 15 knot NNW winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, and the new model forecasts show similar wind speeds continuing today. Infrared satellite loops show thick, high clouds moving in from the southwest early this morning, and if this continues it will put a serious damper on our local thermal. That said, there are a couple of forecast models that show some thinning of the cloud cover around midday, and IF we see any significant thin spots in the cloud cover, we could be off to the races so best be ready. While model forecasts generally agree that sufficient north background flow will last through the next week, it will be a cat and mouse game with high clouds, and that will be the major determining factor on our local thermal. Saturday looks to be the sunniest day, but otherwise high clouds could significantly dampen our local thermal and adjustments to the forecast are likely. Long-range forecasts are in agreement that the next big norte may be delayed until next Thursday…stay tuned.

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph (?).
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Partly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Partly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured 15 to 20 knot NNW winds over the southern Sea of Cortez. Surface high pressure centered over northern Utah this morning will remain in place through Thursday, resulting in ample north background flow continuing here. While we will see a continuation of solid north background flow, infrared satellite loops early this morning showed a broad band of high clouds streaming into BCS from the southwest. The high, thin cloud cover could partially dampen our local thermal, but at this point all of the most recent model forecasts show there should be enough thin spots in the cloud cover to allow for a substantial thermal boost both today and Thursday. While model forecasts show the surface high far to our north breaking down on Friday, a weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to form just to our north and this should bring us continued ample north flow both Friday and Saturday. High clouds will again be a wild card each day through the next week, but at this point it looks like most days will see at least partial sunshine. Forecast models are in fairly good agreement that a large Canadian surface high will begin building southward into the U.S. on Sunday, but there has been a dramatic shift in how far southward into BCS the high will build, and the most recent model runs show no norte conditions here until possibly much later next week.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

Nerd Note: Many of you have commented on how windy this season has been. Here is a graph showing the normal percentage of days with winds of at least 15 mph (from our friends at ikitesurf) compared to the 2024/25 season so far.

I suspect a couple of reasons for the great season are the favorable overall weather pattern, with frequent strong high pressure over the western U.S., and the very dry desert due to summer/fall rain totals of around 2 inches or less.