¡Buenos dias! An evening pass by one of the ASCAT satellites measured west winds at around 5 knots just to the east of Cerralvo, and all of the latest numerical model forecasts show light background flow continuing for today. A relatively weak surface pressure gradient will remain over BCS for the next several days, with generally light winds. There is some indication that we may see a very slight bump in the background flow on Wednesday and Friday, but confidence is low. A weak surface low pressure system is forecast to move slowly across southern California and Arizona Friday into Saturday, and at this point it looks like light winds will continue through Saturday. A noticable change in the weather should occur Saturday night into Sunday as much cooler air will finally move into BCS (see nerd note below). As that happens, a narrow ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to our north with background north flow increasing on Sunday. The north pulse may be short-lived, with light winds returning next Monday.
Today…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
Thursday…Sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
Friday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
Saturday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
Monday…Sunny. Northwest wind 8-10 mph.
Nerd Note: As I mentioned several days ago, long-range global models have been forecasting a major shift in the middle and upper level weather pattern, with much cooler air forecast to finally move into BCS around the middle of November. These forecasts have held, and we should see a noticable cool down here Saturday night into Sunday. The graphics below show the air temperature at around 5000 ft today, with abnormally warm air over much of the western U.S. and Baja Peninsula as a persistent ridge of high pressure remains in place. Notice the trough off the west coast of the U.S., with much cooler air shown in blue. Fast-forward to Sunday and the trough has moved eastward over the Baja Peninsula and temperatures aloft have dropped substantially.
