¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured 10-15 knot NW winds east of Cerralvo, and while model forecasts show decreasing winds this morning, several models indicate the background flow remaining just above the threshold that would normally trigger our local wind machine…on a sunny day. Unfortunately infrared satellite loops this morning show a band of thick middle and high clouds streaming into BCS from the southwest, and all of the recent model forecasts show substantial cloud cover will continue today, and this will likely significantly dampen our local thermal. Full sunshine will return on Thursday, and as a ridge of high pressure builds over the central Baja Peninsula, north winds will increase, and an added thermal boost should bring us a windy afternoon. Thursday night into Friday a storm system just offshore of southern California will drop slowly southward to a point offshore from El Rosario, BC, then move slowly eastward across BC on Saturday. As this happens, circulation around the low will bring us generally light and variable winds both Friday and Saturday. Models are in good agreement that as the low continues eastward on Sunday, surface high pressure will begin to build into the western U.S. and Baja Peninsula, with solid north flow returning here. As the surface pressure gradient continues to tighten on Monday, we may see our first real norte (my loose definition is sustained winds of at least 20 mph that last into or through the night, together with a significant swell). Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that solid north flow will continue Tuesday and possibly through Thursday of next week.
- Today…Mostly cloudy. North wind 10-12 mph.
- Thursday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
- Friday…Sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
- Saturday…Sunny. Northwest wind 8-10 mph.
- Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Monday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
- Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.