¡Buenos dias! Model forecasts of decreasing northwest winds over the southern Sea of Cortez were verified by a midnight pass of the Oceansat satellite which measured NW winds of 5-10 knots near Cerralvo. The forecast for today is a low-confidence one, as the latest batch of model forecasts show NNW background winds will hover very near the lower threshold to help trigger our wind machine this afternoon. Cloud cover will be another big variable today, with some high clouds forecast to move in from the southwest. That said, some of the models show significant breaks in the cloud cover today, so I’ll be optimistic that we’ll see rideable winds. The vast majority of model forecasts show light background flow will continue through Monday, and with significant cloud cover expected each day, there is a good chance that we will see a string of light wind days Saturday through Monday. A pulse of north wind is expected to arrive on Tuesday, and if we’re lucky we may see enough breaks in the cloud cover to at least partially trigger our local thermal. Long-range model forecasts show that the background wind will again become light on Wednesday into Thursday, and with significant cloud cover also expected, we will likely see very light winds.
Nerd Note: The possibility of heavy rain for BCS we talked about a couple of days ago has diminished in the most recent extended range model runs, with only the GFS model still showing the possibility of around 1/2 inch of rain. Both the low-level disturbance from deep in the tropics and the mid and upper-level storm system that were forecast to move over BCS from Wednesdsay through Sunday are now forecast to remain well to our west through Saturday, then track much farther to our north on Sunday. This is a good example of how slight differences in the initial weather pattern can induce major shifts in large-scale weather forecasts beyond about 7 days. Below are the forecasts from Wednesday and the current forecasts for total rainfall from next Wednesday through Sunday, December 7. Of course this can still change significantly…stay tuned.
- Today…Partly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
- Saturday…Partly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
- Sunday…Mostly cloudy. Light and variable wind.
- Monday…Partly sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
- Tuesday…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Wednesday…Mostly cloudy. Light and variable wind.
- Thursday…Mostly cloudy. Light and variable wind.