¡Buenos dias! A late-evening pass by one of the ASCAT satellites measured NW winds of around 5 knots just east of Cerralvo, and model forecasts show marginal background north flow for today. Infrared satellite loops early this morning indicated more clouds streaming in from the southwest, and although we may see some brief breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon, they probably will not be enough to trigger our local thermal. Tuesday still looks to be our best chance to see rideable winds for the next several days, as surface high pressure builds into the 4-corners region of the U.S. and models show clouds should temporarily thin out. The doldrums will return on Wednesday as the surface pressure gradient once again becomes weak, and cloud cover thickens. Model forecasts are in good agreement that a deep trough of low pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere lurking off the Baja Peninsula on Wednesday will begin a slow slog eastward Thursday into Friday. Although the model forecasts vary in their predicted rainfall amounts, the latest forecast runs show it is becoming more likely that we will at least some rainfall Thursday into Friday (see graphics below). Of course this could change so stay tuned. As this vigorous system moves across the Baja Peninsula Thursday into Friday, our winds will likely remain light as thick cloud cover buries our local thermal. There is hope on the horizon though, as long-range forecasts agree that surface high pressure will build into the southwestern U.S. on Saturday and tighten the surface pressure gradient over BCS with increasing north background flow. Lingering moisture will likely lead to some low clouds on Saturday, but enough sun should filter through to at least partially trigger our thermal. Full sunshine should finally return on Sunday, and with solid north flow continuing, we will likely see a windy day.
(Tides)
- Today…Mostly cloudy. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
- Tuesday…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Wednesday…Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Light and variable wind.
- Thursday…Cloudy with scattered showers. North wind 8-10 mph.
- Friday…Cloudy with rain likely. North wind 10-12 mph.
- Saturday…Partly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.