¡Buenos dias! While an ASCAT satellite pass measured 10 knot NNW winds over the Sea of Cortez near Cerralvo last evening, all of the most recent model forecasts show the background NNW flow steadily increasing this afternoon. Infrared satellite loops early this morning indicated a band of high clouds to our south, but model forecasts show these clouds will contine to stay to our south, so we should see a significant thermal this afternoon to help pull the background flow onshore. Solid north background flow will continue on Wednesday as the surface high centered far to our north remains in place. Models are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient over BCS will only very slowly weaken over the next week as a blocking ridge of high pressure remains in place over the west coast of the U.S. and Canada (see nerd note below). As a result, solid north flow is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend and possibly into the beginning of next week. Some thin, high clouds will likely stream overhead at times, but they should not significantly dampen our local thermal.
Nerd Note: An unusually large and persistent ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere has been parked over the western U.S. and Canada over the last several days, and model forecasts show this feature will remain in place through the upcoming weekend and possibly into next week. The graphics below show the forecast wind speed and direction at around 25,000 feet above sea level. The first graphic is valid this morning and shows the very strong ridge of high pressure essentially blocking any Pacific storms from moving into the west coast. The second graph is for 7 am Monday morning, and shows little change in the overall blocking pattern. With high pressure essentially locked in place to our north not only at mid levels but at the surface, this latest windy stretch of days will very likely continue.
- Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
- Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
- Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
- Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.