Author: MasViento

¡Buenos dias! The strong background flow yesterday (see nerd note below) will be repeated today, as all available model forecasts show moderate to strong north flow continuing. Although the setup is not a classic norte one, conditions today will likely mimic a low-end norte, and with full sunshine returning, our local thermal will likely add a bit more and help pull the winds onshore. Surface high pressure centered several hundred miles west of the U.S.-Mexico border this morning is forecast to strengthen and move eastward on Thursday, with the surface pressure gradient tightening and north background flow increasing further…creating norte conditions. All of the model forecasts are in good agreement that the surface high will remain nearly stationary and only slowly weaken through Saturday. At this point it appears that enough background north flow will last through Sunday to give us one more windy afternoon. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to weaken further Monday into Tuesday, with light winds expected.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph
• Monday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph
• Tuesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph

Nerd Note: The wind gauge at the campground yesterday measured 10 minute average sustained winds at 20-24 mph from around noon until 4 pm, with gusts near 30 mph…a 4 mph higher range than I forecast and kind of a head-scratcher for me (see graph below). All available model forecasts early yesterday morning showed midday background flow of 15 knots or less just east of Cerralvo, but reality was significantly higher, as there was an Oceansat satellite pass around 12:30 pm over us which measured sustained winds of 20 knots in the same location (see image below). This is a case which shows that while the numerical models are usually very accurate within the first 24 hours, there still are days where they can be significantly off.

¡Buenos dias! Widespread NW winds of 15 knots were measured over the southern Sea of Cortez by an Oceansat satellite pass around midnight, and the latest numerical model runs all show similar wind speeds will continue today. We got lucky yesterday and saw significant breaks in the high cloud cover, and infrared satellite loops and forecast models are hinting at the same scenario today. Surface high pressure centered west of the Oregon coast this morning is forecast to build southward to a position several hundred miles west of the northern Baja Peninsula on Wednesday, and this will tighten the surface pressure gradient over BCS with the background NNW flow increasing. Models also suggest sunny skies will return tomorrow, so we’ll also get a significant thermal boost as well. While not a classic norte with the surface high near the 4-corners region of the U.S., we may see low-end norte conditions develop on Wednesday and continue for several days as the surface high remains stationary to our northwest. Models are in good agreement that the surface high will slowly weaken Saturday through Monday, but at this point it looks like we will continue to see ample north background flow through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured light WNW winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, but all of the latest numerical model forecasts show north background flow will return today. Surface analysis this morning showed an expansive high pressure system over the eastern Pacific, and models indicate that this feature will begin building into the Baja Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops indicated widespread high clouds moving in from the southwest, but there are some indications in the model forecasts that we will see some thin spots in the cloud cover this afternoon, and that should allow for enough filtered sunshine to give us a partial thermal boost. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday as the surface high builds southward. High clouds will again be a wild card, but it looks like there may be some thin spots from time to time. Models show the surface high will continue to build southward on Wednesday and be centered several hundred miles west of the northern Baja Peninsula. This will further tighten the surface pressure gradient, and with full sunshine returning, we will see a windy afternoon. The surface high is then forecast to remain nearly stationary Thursday through Saturday, with solid north background flow and full sunshine expected. Long-range model forecasts show the surface high weakening on Sunday, but enough north flow will likely remain to continue the streak on windy days.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph

¡Buenos dias! An ASCAT pass last evening measured light and variable winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, and the majority of new model forecasts now show light winds will continue today. Although a couple of the models do show light north background flow forming around midday and nearing the threshold to help trigger our wind machine, infrared satellite loops show cloud cover approaching from the southwest, and this will likely significantly dampen our local thermal. Models are in excellent agreement that surface high pressure will build into the Baja Peninsula from the eastern Pacific Monday and Tuesday, with north flow returning here. High clouds will continue to stream into our area through Tuesday, but there are some indications that there will also be some thin patches to allow filtered sunshine to produce at least a partial thermal boost each day. The east Pacific high pressure system is then forecast to become centered several hundred miles west of the northern Baja Peninsula on Wednesday, with the surface pressure gradient tightening over BCS. Model forecasts are in unusually good agreement that the surface high will remain anchored to our west through Saturday, with solid north background flow continuing over the southern Sea of Cortez. At the same time, full sunshine is forecast to return on Wednesday and last into the beginning of next weekend, so our local thermal will be in fine form.

• Today…Partly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Surface analysis this morning shows an elongated area of low pressure has formed to our north…extending from near San Francisco southeastward into eastern Arizona. Circulation around this system has caused our background flow to become very light, and as a result we will likely see only light onshore breezes this afternoon. The latest model forecasts now show a weak ridge of high pressure forming tomorrow just to our north, and we may see just enough north background flow returning to give us a chance for kiteable winds. The wild card tomorrow will be the thickness of high cloud cover, but for now it looks like some filtered sun will make it through. Pacific high pressure is forecast to build into the Baja Peninsula on Monday, with north flow increasing. The amount of high cloud cover will again be a big question both Monday and Tuesday, but if we can get a few breaks in the clouds we should see at least a partial thermal boost each day. Full sunshine is forecast to return on Wednesday, and with a relatively tight surface pressure gradient over BCS, we should see a windy day. Long-range model forecasts show similar conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday.

• Today…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 14-16 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass last night around midnight measured 15 to 20 knot winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo. The latest model runs show the surface high centered over the 4-corners region of the U.S. this morning will continue to bring ample north background flow to our area today, and full sunshine will trigger a solid afternoon thermal boost as well. There are indications that some wind-shadowing may again be an issue on the northern beaches (see nerd note below). The forecast for a couple of down days Saturday and Sunday is still on track as a broad area of low pressure forms over the southwestern U.S. Pacific high pressure is forecast to begin a slow process of building into the Baja Peninsula on Monday, with the background NNW flow gradually increasing Tuesday through Thursday. The big wild card Monday through Wednesday will be the thickness of high cloud cover, but for now it does appear that some filtered sun will make it through. Sunny skies are forecast to return on Thursday, and as the surface pressure gradient continues to tighten, we may see norte conditions develop.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.

Nerd Note: The wind gauges at Rasta and the main campground yesterday showed very different conditions (see graphs below). The wind direction at Rasta hovered around 5 to 10 degrees, while at the campground it was more like 10-15 degrees. This seemingly trivial difference in wind direction had a big effect on the quality of the wind, with the graph at Rasta (left side) showing very gusty wind (personally confirmed by a really crappy session), while the graph at the campground (right side) showed steadier winds. The HRRR model forecast for today again shows a north-northwest to north wind near and just north of Rasta, and more north-northeast winds along the southern beaches. The background flow is forecast to be just a bit weaker today than the nortes of the past 3 days, so I’m hoping that our thermal may be able to pull the winds, even on the northern beaches, more to a NNE direction…we’ll see.
Note: I’m returning to the Wisuki site for tides. The tideschat.com site is once again failing to show the afternoon low tide.

SWAG…SWAG…SWAG! We will be back at the No Mas Basura recycling day today from 8 am until 10 am with MasViento hats and shirts. We will also have shirts and tickets for the upcoming Baja Beach Blues concert on February 12.

¡Buenos dias! A couple of satellite passes last evening measured 15-20 knot NNW winds over the southern Sea of Cortez. Surface analysis this morning showed a strong high pressure system centered over southeastern Idaho, and all of the latest model forecasts show this system sinking southward into Utah today. This will keep a tight surface pressure gradient in place over BCS, with a rare third consecutive day of norte conditions expected here. As has been the case over the last 2 days, northern beaches will likely see some wind-shadowed and holey conditions. The surface high will sink into the 4-corners region of the U.S. on Friday and weaken, but solid north background flow will continue, and with sunny skies expected, we should see another windy afternoon. Model forecasts are all in excellent agreement that our streak of windy days will come to a screeching halt on Saturday as a strong mid to upper level storm system dives south…southwestward from southern British Columbia on Friday to near San Francisco by early Saturday.

In response, surface low pressure will rapidly form over the southwestern U.S. and our winds will become light. Sunday looks to be another down day as the system over the southwestern U.S. moves very slowly eastward and the background flow over BCS remains light. Surface high pressure from the eastern Pacific will begin building back into the Baja Peninsula on Monday, and we should see a return on north flow. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient over BCS will continue to tighten next week, with norte conditions possible by Wednesday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An ASCAT pass last evening measured 20 to 25 knot winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, and all of this morning’s model runs show the norte will continue today. There may be some wind shadowing at the northern beaches, with holey, gusty conditions. The norte will likely continue for a third day on Thursday as strong surface high pressure centered over southern British Columbia this morning will build southeastward into the 4-corners region of the U.S. and reinforce the already tight surface pressure gradient over BCS. The norte should ease on Friday as the surface high to our north weakens, but ample north background flow will remain to give us another windy day. Global models continue to be in excellent agreement that surface low pressure will rapidly form over the southwestern U.S. Friday night into Saturday, and the north flow over BCS will collapse, with only light onshore breezes expected. Similar conditions will likely last through Sunday, then Pacific high pressure should begin to build back into the Baja Peninsula on Monday with north flow increasing. At this point it looks like sufficient north background flow and filtered sunshine will be enough to produce kiteable conditions again on Tuesday.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An ASCAT pass late last evening showed the leading edge of the norte had reached as far south as Loreto, with 25 knot winds measured over the Sea of Cortez from there northward. Some of the wind gauges here were already measuring wind gusts in the mid 20s early this morning, and all of the most recent model forecasts show norte conditions developing here today. As is typical for the first day of a norte, we will likely see some west component to the wind, with variable, gusty conditions near shore with the strongest winds staying a distance offshore. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed patches of high clouds (see nerd note below) moving in from the southwest, but the thickest cloud cover should remain to our north. Models continue to show a reinforcing surface high will build into the interior west from British Columbia on Wednesday and keep a tight surface pressure gradient over BCS. Strong north background flow will likely continue through Thursday, then east a bit on Friday as the surface high centered far to our north weakens. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that as an elongated surface low forms over the southwestern U.S. on Saturday, our background flow will become very light. The low to our north will likely linger through Sunday, then long-range model forecasts show surface high pressure again building into BCS…possibly as early as Monday.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North/northwest wind 20-24 mph (variable and very gusty near shore).
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

Nerd Note: Many of you posted pictures of some very strange cloud formations yesterday (see below). These are known as cavum, or hole punch clouds. They are formed as super-cooled water droplets in high-level clouds freeze.
Pure liquid water freezes at a temperature well below 0 degrees Celsius (32 Fahrenheit), and this commonly leads to super-cooled liquid clouds. Here is a great explanation from the BBC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRGYhkr-5sw
What we witnessed yesterday was likely caused as a jet flew through supercooled liquid clouds. Impurities in the jet exhaust acted as freezing nuclei and ice crystals rapidly formed, thereby changing the appearance of the cloud field. You can see both a jet track and a ‘punch hole’ formed as ice crystals scavenged up surrounding supercooled liquid droplets in the stock pictures below.

¡Buenos dias! Multiple polar-orbiting satellite passes last evening measured 15 knot winds over the Sea of Cortez east of Cerralvo, but all of the most recent model forecasts show the background flow weakening this morning to below the threshold to activate our wind machine. Our down time will be short, as strong surface high pressure will build into the 4-corners area of the U.S. on Tuesday, with norte conditions developing here. The norte will likely last through Wednesday, as a reinforcing area of high pressure moves from the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. into Idaho and keeps a very tight surface pressure gradient in place over BCS. Although there will likely be times of thin, high clouds both Tuesday and Wednesday, the primary driver of our winds will be the norte so a slightly dampened thermal shouldn’t make any difference. Sunny skies are forecast to return on Thursday, and although the norte should ease, we will likely see another windy afternoon. The surface high centered far to our north will weaken on Friday, but ample north background flow will continue and team up with full sunshine to give us another good day. All of the long-range models are in good agreement that surface low pressure will rapidly form over the southwestern U.S. on Saturday, with our background flow becoming light. The low will likely linger to our north through Sunday, with another down day likely. Looking farther into the following week, both the European and American long-range models show north flow returning on Monday the 27th, with another long stretch of windy days looking likely.

• Today…Some morning high clouds, then becoming sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

Nerd Note: A massive arctic airmass stretching from the east coast of the U.S. into British Columbia this morning will produce a variety of hazardous weather over much of the U.S. over the next few days. Extreme cold warnings stretched from the upper Midwest into southwestern Texas, with cold weather advisories covering much of the remainder of the country from the Rockies eastward to the Atlantic coast. The very strong pressure gradient over southern California will lead to extreme fire weather conditions over parts of southern California today and Tuesday, where Santa Ana winds will gust to 60-80 mph. Farther east, an extremely rare snowstorm is forecast the I-10 corridor stretching from Houston to New Orleans where 4-6 inches of snow looks likely on Tuesday.