Author: MasViento

¡Buenos dias! The Oceansat satellite measured NW winds of 15 knots just east of Cerralvo late last evening, and forecast models are in good agreement that solid NW background flow will continue today. The forecast for today is a low-confidence one, as while we will see ample NW background wind, the main controlling factor will be cloud cover. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed a large area of mid and high-level clouds to our south was moving northward into BCS, and all of the model forecasts show substantial cloud cover this afternoon. It's going to be one of those days where if we get any substantial breaks in the cloud cover, we could see just enough of a thermal to give us rideable winds, but it will be close. Clouds should thin a bit on Tuesday, and with ample background flow forecast to continue, we should see a windy afternoon. At this point it looks like our game of cat and mouse with the cloud cover will see a break on Wednesday, as model forecasts show full sunshine will return and likely give us a good thermal boost. Substantial cloud cover will again creep into BCS on Thursday, but at this point I'll be optimistic that we'll see some thin spots and at least a partial thermal boost. Our long stretch of windy days (18 and counting) will likely come to an end on Friday, as long-range model forecasts show a deep trough of low pressure primarily in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will drop southward into the Baja Peninsula and create a very weak surface pressure gradient with light background flow over our region. Thick cloud cover will also be drawn into BCS, and we may even see a few showers on Saturday. Extended-range model forecasts disagree on how fast this system will move off to the east, but at this point it looks like light winds will continue through Sunday.

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly cloudy. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Partly sunny. Light and variable wind.

¡Buenos dias! Early morning high clouds gave way to full sunshine yesterday, and 10-minute sustained winds at the campground peaked at 18-22 mph from 1 pm until 4 pm. An Oceansat satellite pass just after midnight measured NW winds at 10-15 knots near Cerralvo, and all recent model forecasts show solid background flow will continue today. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed clear skies over our area, but a mass of clouds associated with a weak low pressure system was lurking to our southwest. Model forecasts show the bulk of the cloud cover will remain to our southwest for one more day, so we should see another strong thermal boost this afternoon. The background flow is forecast to weaken a bit on Monday, and high clouds should begin to creep into our area from the southwest. That said, models are indicating that we should see some thin spots in the cloud cover so we will likely see at least a partial thermal boost. Similar conditions are expected through Thursday, then the long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that we will see an end to this long stretch of windy days on Friday as the surface pressure gradient over BCS weakens. Extended range forecasts are showing light background flow continuing through the upcoming weekend.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured NW winds of 10 knots over the southern Sea of Cortez, and while the latest batch of model forecasts show the background flow over the Sea of Cortez becoming north and increasing a bit this afternoon, the big wildcard over the next few days will be the amount of cloud cover. A low pressure system centered far to our south near the

Revillagigedo Islands this morning will move slowly northwestward over the next several days and spread mid and upper level cloud cover over BCS. At this point it looks like there will be enough thin spots in the cloud cover for at least a partial thermal today through Monday, but if we see thicker clouds, we will likely see lighter winds. Sunny skies should return by Tuesday, and with ample north background flow forecast to continue through Thursday, we should see our local wind machine in fine form. The surface pressure gradient is then forecast to weaken on Friday, with only light onshore winds expected. 

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! The wind gauges at Rasta and the campground yesterday showed the direction of the wind remained essentially due north for much of the afternoon, and reports indicated much improved wind quality at Rasta from the wind-shadowed conditions experienced on Wednesday (thanks for the report D.A.). The latest model forecasts show the large surface high draped over much of western Canada and the U.S. will stay parked over that region through much of the upcoming week and maintain enough north background flow through at least Wednesday to help jump-start our local wind machine. There will be times of some thin, high clouds, but models have been trending sunnier over the last several runs, so it looks like we will get substantial thermal boosts each day. Long-range forecasts show that the surface pressure gradient may begin to weaken on Thursday, but just enough remnant north flow could remain to give us one more rideable day.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Satellite passes missed BCS last evening, but all of the latest model forecasts show NNW background flow will continue today. The large west component measured by the gauge at Rasta Beach yesterday resulted in very inconsistent winds (see graph below) while a more due north wind at the campground produced a more even trace. While not as bad as yesterday, models are suggesting another day with at least some west component at northern beaches, so expect some wind shadowing there. An elongated ridge of high pressure at the surface over western Canada and the U.S. will continue in place through the weekend and into the middle of next week, with only minor variations in the day to day background flow over BCS. Some high clouds will stream in at times, but ample filtered sunshine should be enough to at least partially trigger our local thermal each day.

• Today…Sunny. North to north-northwest wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Several satellite passes last evening measured NW winds of 15-20 knots over the southern Sea of Cortez, and similar wind speeds are forcast to continue today. Model forecasts show a significant west component in the background flow today, and although our local thermal should be able to pull most of the west out by this afternoon, northern beaches may see some wind shadowing. The going forecast remains essentially intact, as surface high pressure over the western U.S. will basically remain in place and produce ample north background flow over the BCS through next weekend and into next week. The background flow will weaken very gradually through the next week, but with sunny to mostly sunny skies expected each day, our local thermal bring an added boost.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North…northwest to north wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! While an ASCAT satellite pass measured 10 knot NNW winds over the Sea of Cortez near Cerralvo last evening, all of the most recent model forecasts show the background NNW flow steadily increasing this afternoon. Infrared satellite loops early this morning indicated a band of high clouds to our south, but model forecasts show these clouds will contine to stay to our south, so we should see a significant thermal this afternoon to help pull the background flow onshore. Solid north background flow will continue on Wednesday as the surface high centered far to our north remains in place. Models are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient over BCS will only very slowly weaken over the next week as a blocking ridge of high pressure remains in place over the west coast of the U.S. and Canada (see nerd note below). As a result, solid north flow is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend and possibly into the beginning of next week. Some thin, high clouds will likely stream overhead at times, but they should not significantly dampen our local thermal.

Nerd Note: An unusually large and persistent ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere has been parked over the western U.S. and Canada over the last several days, and model forecasts show this feature will remain in place through the upcoming weekend and possibly into next week. The graphics below show the forecast wind speed and direction at around 25,000 feet above sea level. The first graphic is valid this morning and shows the very strong ridge of high pressure essentially blocking any Pacific storms from moving into the west coast. The second graph is for 7 am Monday morning, and shows little change in the overall blocking pattern. With high pressure essentially locked in place to our north not only at mid levels but at the surface, this latest windy stretch of days will very likely continue.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! While there was still some wind-shadowing at times on the northern beaches, the wind quality improved yesterday and gauges at both Rasta and the campground showed sustained winds peaked in the lower 20s with gusts well into the mid 20 mph range. An Oceansat satellite pass just before midnight last night measured NNW winds of 20 knots near Cerralvo, with 25 to 30 knot winds from near Loreto northward through the remainder of the Sea of Cortez. The strong surface high pressure system that brought us the norte remained centered near Salt Lake City this morning, and all of the recent model forecasts continue to show that it will remain essentially stationary through the upcoming weekend. Short-range model forecasts are in agreement that there will not be any significant west component to the background flow this afternoon, and that should bring all area beaches good quality, steady winds. We'll likely see a bump up in the background flow tomorrow, and with sunny skies expected, we should see a good thermal boost as well. While the surface high centered far to our north will remain locked in place, it will begin to slowly weaken on Thursday, but at this point the majority of models show ample north background flow continuing over our region through the weekend. Some thin, high clouds will likely begin to creep in from the southwest on Wednesday and last through the weekend, but at this point it looks like there will still be plenty of sunshine each day.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Gusty didn’t fully describe the winds yesterday (see graphic from Rasta Beach below), as the wind gauges at both Rasta Beach and the campground showed extremely variable winds, with sustained winds at times down into the mid to upper teens but gusts still near 30 mph. The top gusts (usually a 3-10 second average) recorded were in the low to mid 30s. There is a wind sensor on the roof of Club Cerralvo, which is probably 40-60 feet above the ground, and it measured sustained winds of 37 mph with a gust to 46 mph…thanks for that observations JS. A pass by one of the ASCAT satelllites last evening measured 20 knot NNW winds near Cerralvo, with 30 knot winds common about 100 miles to the north. The norte should ease a bit today, as model forecasts are in good agreement that the background flow will not be quite as strong nor as wildly gusty as yesterday. The significant west component noted at times yesterday at area gauges should be less of an issue today, however northern beaches could still see some wind shadowing at times. The very large swell will only slowly subside today, as 30 knot winds still blowing across the central Sea of Cortez have created a long, large swell train. The latest round of model forecasts show the strong surface high pressure system centered near Salt Lake City this morning will be located in the same spot by next Saturday, and only minor day to day variations in wind speed are forecast through Thursday. A slight weakening of the background flow is expected Friday and Saturday as the surface high begins to weaken. This means the week ahead will be one of the windiest we’ve seen in a while, and with only a few thin, high clouds at times, I’m hopeful that (other than maybe today) our thermal will be able to pull most of any remaining west out of background flow.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Wind gauges yesterday recorded sustained winds in the low to mid 20s with gusts into the mid 30s as the strongest norte so far this season arrived. As is typical of the bigger nortes, strong wind gusts continued overnight even with a significant west component, with area gauges recording occasional gusts from the upper 20s into the mid 30s early this morning. A Haiyang satellite pass last evening measured 25 knot winds just east of Cerralvo, with solid 30 knot winds over the southern Sea of Cortez from just north of Cerralvo north-northwestward for several hundred miles (see nerd note below). Nearly all of the latest model forecasts continue to be in excellent agreement that the strong surface high centered near Salt Lake City this morning will remain locked in place through at least Thursday, and although norte conditions will likely ease tomorrow as the high weakens a bit, solid NNW background flow will very likely continue through at least Thursday. While there are some differences in the extended range forecasts, most are showing that we will continue to see ample north background flow through next weekend and possibly into the following week. There may be some thin, high clouds from time to time over the next week, especially on Wednesday and Thursday, but at this point it looks like there will be enough sunshine each day to trigger our local thermal.

Nerd Note: As noted above one of the polar-orbiting satellites recorded the current norte in all its glory last evening. These satellites use directed microwave and radar pulses to determine wind speeds to within about 5 mph. The graphic below shows 25 knot winds near Cerralvo, and 30 knot winds (3 barbs) from just north of Cerralvo to a point in the east-central Sea of Cortez…a distance of over 350 miles. This will likely generate large swell directed into La Ventana Bay today, and model forecasts are showing wave heights entering the northern bay of 8 feet. We don’t have any buoys nearby to measure wave heights, so I’d like to hear your observations. Of course please be safe entering and exiting the water today…there will likely be a big shore break at times.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.