Author: MasViento

¡Buenos dias! NNW winds at 10 knots were measured very early this morning just east of Cerralvo by the Haiyang polar-orbition satellite, but all of the most recent model forecasts show background winds will fall to near or just below the threshold for fully triggering our wind machine. That said, full sunshine on this shortest day of the year may bring marginal winds this afternoon, but confidence is low. Model forecasts are in good agreement that similar weak background flow will last through Wednesday, and with some high cloud cover expected both Tuesday and Wendnesday, it looks likely that light winds will continue through Christmas Eve. The outlook gets much better on Christmas Day, as models show an elongated ridge of high pressure building over the northern Baja Peninsula, with the surface pressure gradient tightening over our region. Only a few thin, high clouds are expected on Christmas Day, so we should see a significant thermal boost as well. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that the background flow over BCS will increase on Friday as the surface pressure gradient continues to tighten, with norte conditions developing here. The latest extended-range forecasts for next weekend differ significantly, however the normally reliable ECMWF model (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) shows a strong surface high building into the Western U.S. with solid north background flow through at least Tuesday the 30th .

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Partly sunny. North wind 10-12 mph.
• Christmas Day…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A pass by the Haiyang satellite around midnight measured 10 knot NW winds near Cerralvo, but all of the latest numerical model forecasts show the background wind becoming very weak this morning, with only light onshore breezes expected today. The forecast for the period Sunday through Wednesday is a low-confidence one, as models show the background north flow flirting with the lower threshold to fully activate our local wind machine. We'll also see some high cloud cover at times, especially Tuesday and Wednesday, and that could partially dampen our local thermal. Given those caveats, the best chance for rideable wind looks to be Sunday and Monday. Christmas day will see surface high pressure beginning to build into the Baja Peninsula, and with only a few thin, high clouds expected, we should see a windy afternoon. An expansive surface high pressure system over the eastern Pacific will continue building into BCS on Friday, with increasing north flow likely here. Extended-range forecasts continue to be in good agreement that solid NNW background flow will then last through much of the week between Christmas and New Year's Eve.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Partly sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Christmas Day…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! The slight increase in background flow forecast by the models arrived just early enough yesterday afternoon to bring a brief but nice bump in the winds at the campground from 3:15-4:15, with 10-minute average winds of 14-16 mph (see graph below). A couple of the more reliable forecast models show similar background wind speeds will persist today, and with full sunshine our local thermal will likely bring us a longer period of rideable wind this afternoon. Very light winds are forecast to return on Saturday, with a down day expected. Sunday may see a slight increase in north background winds, but it will likely be right on the edge for triggering our local wind machine. Model forecasts are showing some high clouds will move into BCS on Monday and Tuesday, and with our background flow remaining relatively light, it looks likely at this point that we'll continue to see light afternoon winds. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to begin to tighten on Wednesday, and we may see marginally rideable conditions if the remaining high cloud cover is thin. Christmas Day looks to be a windy one as the surface pressure gradient continues to tighten and full sunshine returns.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Christmas Day…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

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¡Buenos dias! Satellite passes late last evening measured NW winds of 10 knots near Cerralvo, but all of the most recent model forecasts now show the background wind decreasing rapidly this morning. The models are also in good agreement that the north background flow will begin to increase this afternoon, but it looks like it will likely be too late in the day to fully trigger our local thermal, with marginal winds at best an hour or two before sunset. The next pulse of north wind should last through Friday, as most of the models show just enough background flow to combine with another sunny day and give us a rideable afternoon. As easy as the forecast was for the last 10 days or so, the remainder of the next week will be equally diffucult, as all of the model forecasts show a fairly weak surface pressure gradient over BCS and background flow near or just below the threshold to trigger our wind machine. I’ll take a stab at forecasting relatively minor variations, but it’ll be right on the edge each day. Hopefully things will become clearer as the week progresses…stay tuned. Looking farther into the future, extended-range model forecasts are in excellent agreement and show the Christmas to New Year’s week will be a windy one, with solid north flow beginning Christmas day and continuing through New Year’s Eve.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. Light and variable winds becoming north at 10-12 mph late.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.

   

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¡Buenos dias! A couple of polar-orbiting satellites around midnight measured widespread NNW winds of 15 knots over the southern Sea of Cortez, and the latest batch of model forecasts show solid NNW background flow will continue today. Infrared satellite loops showed clear skies over all of BCS, and with full sunshine expected today we will see another substantial thermal boost this afternoon. Surface high pressure centered near the 4-corners region of the U.S. early this morning will move southward into central Arizona today, then weaken tonight. Model forecasts are in good agreement that surface high pressure will rapidly build back into the interior west of the U.S. on Thursday and keep ample NNW background flow going over our region. The surface pressure gradient will then weaken on Friday, but at this point it looks like just enough north flow will remain to give us one more windy afternoon. Models are in good agreement that on Saturday the background flow will fall just below what is normally needed to fully trigger our local wind machine, but stay tuned as it will be close. Similar conditions are likely on Sunday, then we may see a slight increase in north flow on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure begins to build to our north.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Satellite passes last evening measured NW to NNW winds of around 10 knots near Cerralvo, with slightly stronger winds farther east. Model forecasts are in good agreement that we will see NNW background winds increase this afternoon, and with another sunny afternoon expected, we will get an added boost from our local thermal. The surface high to our north will bring ample north flow to our region through at least Thursday, and with sunny days continuing as well, we will see our streak of windy afternoons continue. The surface pressure gradient will begin to weaken on Friday, but at this point it looks like we'll still have just enough north background flow to jump-start our wind machine. Long-range models are in good agreement that a weak surface pressure gradient will then set up over BCS for the weekend, with light winds expected here. We may see a bit of a bump in the background wind on Monday, but at this point it looks marginal. Looking into the remainder of Christmas week, extended-range model forecasts are in good agreement that north winds will increase either Tuesday or Wednesday, with solid north flow then continuing through at least Saturday the 27th.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat-3 satellite pass around midnight measured NNW winds of 10-15 knots just east of Cerralvo as surface high pressure to our north kept this amazing streak of windy days going. While it sounds like a broken record…it's a good one…as model forecasts show the surface high remaining virtually stationary through Tuesday. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed clear skies over BCS, so we'll see a good thermal boost as well today. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday, and most of the models even show a bit of an uptick in the background flow. The surface high will move southward into Arizona on Wednesday, with ample north background flow continuing here. Models are now in good agreement that a new surface high will build into the interior west of the U.S. on Thursday and may be just enough to give us a marginally windy afternoon. Sunny skies and sufficient NNW background flow is forecast for Friday, but that will likely be the last windy afternoon of this current streak as long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that our winds will be light this weeekend.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 14-16 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! There were no passes by the polar-orbiting satellites last evening so we'll have to go solely with model predictions of winds today. The good news it that all of the latest numerical model forecasts show a continuation of solid NNW background wind through Wednesday, as the surface high pressure system to our north holds firm. The wild card for today will be the thickness of high clouds. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed a narrow but substantial band of high clouds approaching our area from the west, but several of the models show the thickest clouds will remain just to our northwest, with substantial filtered sun here this afternoon. Another reason to be optimistic for today is that several of the models show a slight increase in background flow this afternoon. Although some high clouds will likely remain on Monday, we should see ample filtered sunshine to once again trigger our wind machine. Full sunshine is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, and with solid NNW background flow, we should see our streak of windy days continue. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient will become weak on Thursday, with a down day likely. We might see a slight increase in winds on Friday, but very light winds will likely return again on Saturday.

(Tides)

• Today…High clouds this morning, then becoming mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A pass just after midnight by the Oceansat-3 satellite measured NNW winds of 10-15 knots near Cerralvo as surface high pressure centered over the interior west of the U.S. continued to keep solid NNW background flow over BCS. The latest model forecasts are in excellent agreement that this feature will hold through Tuesday, then begin to move southward and weaken on Wednesday. A few thin, high clouds will likely stream overhead on Sunday and Monday, but they should allow in enough filtered sun to trigger our local thermal each day. Long-range model forecasts indicate that a weak surface pressure gradient will set up over our region on Thursday and continue into Friday.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! None of the wind-measuring satellites passed over BCS last evening, but all of the latest model forecasts show the near perfect conditions of yesterday will continue for almost another week. There may be a few thin, high clouds at times on Monday, but otherwise look for sunny skies each day, with our local thermal in fine form. The surface high that is locked in place to our north will remain there through Tuesday, then begin to move southward and weaken on Wednesday. At this point the long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that we'll see light winds on Thursday as the surface pressure gradient becomes weak.

Nerd Note: The strong ridge of high pressure parked over much of the western U.S. will continue to bring near record warmth to areas of the Sierras, while to the east, a corresponding deep trough of low pressure will allow more arctic air to plunge into the midwest of the U.S. Below is a graphic showing the forecast wind pattern and speed for Sunday at about 20,000 ft above sea level, and the National Weather Service 7-day forecasts for Kirkwood ski resort (Lake Tahoe) at 9000 ft, and for Chicago.

 

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.