La Ventana Stories

Gerry you would've loved this day…perfect for a downwinder with friends. You will be missed.

¡Buenos dias! The gauge at the campground yesterday showed 10-minute sustained winds peaked at 20 mph from 2-3 pm as a perfectly timed area of clearing over the plains to our south and west sent our local thermal into overdrive (see satellite loops below). An Oceansat satellite pass shortly before midnight measured NW winds of 10 knots over the Sea of Cortez near Cerralvo, and all of the latest model forecasts show ample NNW to N background flow today. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed just a few remnant clouds in our region, and all of the latest forecast models indicate a sunny day ahead, so our local thermal should be hitting on all cylinders this afternoon. Our 21 day windy streak will likely come to an end on Thursday, as a trough of low pressure over southern California will move slowly eastward and cause our surface pressure gradient to weaken. At this point it looks like the background flow over our area on Thursday will fall just below what is usually needed to trigger our local wind machine. As the low to our north creeps slowly eastward on Friday and Saturday, our winds will remain light and we will lots of cloud cover and even some showers on Saturday. The low will accelerate eastward on Sunday and allow surface high pressure to rapidly build into the Baja Peninsula, bringing solid north flow and sunny skies back to our region. The surface high centered over the interior west of the U.S. is then forecast to remain essentially stationary through much of next week, with another long streak of windy days looking likely.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Friday…Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible late. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Coudy with showers likely. Light and variable wind.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! No satellite-derived winds were available this morning, but all of the most recent model forecasts show ample NNW background flow will continue today. As was the case yesterday, cloud cover will be the controlling factor on wind speeds (see nerd note below). Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed a large area of mid-level clouds to our southwest was slowly moving northeastward, and model forecasts are in good agreement that we will see signficant cloud cover this afternoon. Of course if we see unexpected breaks in the clouds this afternoon, wind speeds will be higher than I’ve forecast. Models are in excellent agreement that full sunshine will return on Wednesday, and with sufficient NNW background flow also forecast, we will likely see a good thermal boost. Surface low pressure will begin to form over the southwestern U.S. on Thursday and substantially weaken the surface pressure gradient over BCS. At this point it looks like the background flow will fall below what we normally need to fully activate our wind machine. As the low moves slowly eastward from southern California on Friday into western New Mexico by late Saturday, our winds will remain light. Moisture circulating around the low will be drawn over BCS as the low passes to our north, and models are in good agreement that we will likely see some showers late Friday into Saturday, with anywhere from 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain possible. As the low continues eastward on Sunday, surface high pressure will build into the interior west of the U.S. and the surface pressure gradient over BCS will tighten. Skies will also clear as drier air moves into our region, and with full sunshine expected on Sunday, we will likely see a windy afternoon. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that solid north background flow will then continue well into next week.

Nerd Note: Yesterday was a good example of how cloud cover can impact our local thermal. The graphic below show the wind speed and the solar radiation (amount of sunshine) measured at Rasta Beach yesterday. Note how the two graphs roughly mimic each other (with some time delay), with an early peak of winds from around 10:30 am until around noon, then winds decreased after clouds thickened around 11:45 am. As the cloud cover thinned a bit after 1 pm, wind speeds increased starting around 1:30 pm and peaked shortly after 2 pm. As clouds thickened again after around 2:15 pm, winds responded…weakening substantially by around 2:45 pm.

(Tides)

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Friday…Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible late. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Light and variable wind.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.

¡Buenos dias! The Oceansat satellite measured NW winds of 15 knots just east of Cerralvo late last evening, and forecast models are in good agreement that solid NW background flow will continue today. The forecast for today is a low-confidence one, as while we will see ample NW background wind, the main controlling factor will be cloud cover. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed a large area of mid and high-level clouds to our south was moving northward into BCS, and all of the model forecasts show substantial cloud cover this afternoon. It's going to be one of those days where if we get any substantial breaks in the cloud cover, we could see just enough of a thermal to give us rideable winds, but it will be close. Clouds should thin a bit on Tuesday, and with ample background flow forecast to continue, we should see a windy afternoon. At this point it looks like our game of cat and mouse with the cloud cover will see a break on Wednesday, as model forecasts show full sunshine will return and likely give us a good thermal boost. Substantial cloud cover will again creep into BCS on Thursday, but at this point I'll be optimistic that we'll see some thin spots and at least a partial thermal boost. Our long stretch of windy days (18 and counting) will likely come to an end on Friday, as long-range model forecasts show a deep trough of low pressure primarily in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will drop southward into the Baja Peninsula and create a very weak surface pressure gradient with light background flow over our region. Thick cloud cover will also be drawn into BCS, and we may even see a few showers on Saturday. Extended-range model forecasts disagree on how fast this system will move off to the east, but at this point it looks like light winds will continue through Sunday.

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly cloudy. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Partly sunny. Light and variable wind.

¡Buenos dias! Early morning high clouds gave way to full sunshine yesterday, and 10-minute sustained winds at the campground peaked at 18-22 mph from 1 pm until 4 pm. An Oceansat satellite pass just after midnight measured NW winds at 10-15 knots near Cerralvo, and all recent model forecasts show solid background flow will continue today. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed clear skies over our area, but a mass of clouds associated with a weak low pressure system was lurking to our southwest. Model forecasts show the bulk of the cloud cover will remain to our southwest for one more day, so we should see another strong thermal boost this afternoon. The background flow is forecast to weaken a bit on Monday, and high clouds should begin to creep into our area from the southwest. That said, models are indicating that we should see some thin spots in the cloud cover so we will likely see at least a partial thermal boost. Similar conditions are expected through Thursday, then the long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that we will see an end to this long stretch of windy days on Friday as the surface pressure gradient over BCS weakens. Extended range forecasts are showing light background flow continuing through the upcoming weekend.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured NW winds of 10 knots over the southern Sea of Cortez, and while the latest batch of model forecasts show the background flow over the Sea of Cortez becoming north and increasing a bit this afternoon, the big wildcard over the next few days will be the amount of cloud cover. A low pressure system centered far to our south near the

Revillagigedo Islands this morning will move slowly northwestward over the next several days and spread mid and upper level cloud cover over BCS. At this point it looks like there will be enough thin spots in the cloud cover for at least a partial thermal today through Monday, but if we see thicker clouds, we will likely see lighter winds. Sunny skies should return by Tuesday, and with ample north background flow forecast to continue through Thursday, we should see our local wind machine in fine form. The surface pressure gradient is then forecast to weaken on Friday, with only light onshore winds expected. 

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! The wind gauges at Rasta and the campground yesterday showed the direction of the wind remained essentially due north for much of the afternoon, and reports indicated much improved wind quality at Rasta from the wind-shadowed conditions experienced on Wednesday (thanks for the report D.A.). The latest model forecasts show the large surface high draped over much of western Canada and the U.S. will stay parked over that region through much of the upcoming week and maintain enough north background flow through at least Wednesday to help jump-start our local wind machine. There will be times of some thin, high clouds, but models have been trending sunnier over the last several runs, so it looks like we will get substantial thermal boosts each day. Long-range forecasts show that the surface pressure gradient may begin to weaken on Thursday, but just enough remnant north flow could remain to give us one more rideable day.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Satellite passes missed BCS last evening, but all of the latest model forecasts show NNW background flow will continue today. The large west component measured by the gauge at Rasta Beach yesterday resulted in very inconsistent winds (see graph below) while a more due north wind at the campground produced a more even trace. While not as bad as yesterday, models are suggesting another day with at least some west component at northern beaches, so expect some wind shadowing there. An elongated ridge of high pressure at the surface over western Canada and the U.S. will continue in place through the weekend and into the middle of next week, with only minor variations in the day to day background flow over BCS. Some high clouds will stream in at times, but ample filtered sunshine should be enough to at least partially trigger our local thermal each day.

• Today…Sunny. North to north-northwest wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Several satellite passes last evening measured NW winds of 15-20 knots over the southern Sea of Cortez, and similar wind speeds are forcast to continue today. Model forecasts show a significant west component in the background flow today, and although our local thermal should be able to pull most of the west out by this afternoon, northern beaches may see some wind shadowing. The going forecast remains essentially intact, as surface high pressure over the western U.S. will basically remain in place and produce ample north background flow over the BCS through next weekend and into next week. The background flow will weaken very gradually through the next week, but with sunny to mostly sunny skies expected each day, our local thermal bring an added boost.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North…northwest to north wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! While an ASCAT satellite pass measured 10 knot NNW winds over the Sea of Cortez near Cerralvo last evening, all of the most recent model forecasts show the background NNW flow steadily increasing this afternoon. Infrared satellite loops early this morning indicated a band of high clouds to our south, but model forecasts show these clouds will contine to stay to our south, so we should see a significant thermal this afternoon to help pull the background flow onshore. Solid north background flow will continue on Wednesday as the surface high centered far to our north remains in place. Models are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient over BCS will only very slowly weaken over the next week as a blocking ridge of high pressure remains in place over the west coast of the U.S. and Canada (see nerd note below). As a result, solid north flow is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend and possibly into the beginning of next week. Some thin, high clouds will likely stream overhead at times, but they should not significantly dampen our local thermal.

Nerd Note: An unusually large and persistent ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere has been parked over the western U.S. and Canada over the last several days, and model forecasts show this feature will remain in place through the upcoming weekend and possibly into next week. The graphics below show the forecast wind speed and direction at around 25,000 feet above sea level. The first graphic is valid this morning and shows the very strong ridge of high pressure essentially blocking any Pacific storms from moving into the west coast. The second graph is for 7 am Monday morning, and shows little change in the overall blocking pattern. With high pressure essentially locked in place to our north not only at mid levels but at the surface, this latest windy stretch of days will very likely continue.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! While there was still some wind-shadowing at times on the northern beaches, the wind quality improved yesterday and gauges at both Rasta and the campground showed sustained winds peaked in the lower 20s with gusts well into the mid 20 mph range. An Oceansat satellite pass just before midnight last night measured NNW winds of 20 knots near Cerralvo, with 25 to 30 knot winds from near Loreto northward through the remainder of the Sea of Cortez. The strong surface high pressure system that brought us the norte remained centered near Salt Lake City this morning, and all of the recent model forecasts continue to show that it will remain essentially stationary through the upcoming weekend. Short-range model forecasts are in agreement that there will not be any significant west component to the background flow this afternoon, and that should bring all area beaches good quality, steady winds. We'll likely see a bump up in the background flow tomorrow, and with sunny skies expected, we should see a good thermal boost as well. While the surface high centered far to our north will remain locked in place, it will begin to slowly weaken on Thursday, but at this point the majority of models show ample north background flow continuing over our region through the weekend. Some thin, high clouds will likely begin to creep in from the southwest on Wednesday and last through the weekend, but at this point it looks like there will still be plenty of sunshine each day.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.