La Ventana Stories

¡Buenos dias! The wind gauge at the campground showed an unusual profile with two peaks yesterday…one from around 2-3:30, then another late one from around 4:30-5:30 (see graph below). Satellite passes yesterday afternoon indicated that the second peak was a new surge of north background flow, however it arrived a bit too late to fully team up with our local thermal, so winds only peaked at around 18 mph instead of the 20-24 mph I expected. A satellite pass last evening measured 10 knot NW winds over much of the southern Sea of Cortez, and forecast models show similar backgroud flow will continue today. With another sunny day ahead we will likely see a substantial thermal boost, and with north background flow already in place, we should see a more normal wind profile, with winds increasing by around midday. A sprawling ridge of high pressure covering much of the western U.S. this morning will weaken quickly tonight, leaving a weak surface pressure gradient with only light onshore flow expected Thursday and Friday. Forecast models are in fairly good agreement that Canadian high pressure will work its way southeastward and bring a new pulse of north flow to BCS…possibly as early as Saturday afternoon. Sunday looks to be the windiest day of the upcoming weekend, and long-range model forecast show just enough north background flow may last into Monday. At this point it looks like Tuesday will be another light wind day as the surface pressure gradient over our region becomes very weak.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A satellite pass measured northwest winds of 10 knots over the southern Sea of Cortez around midnight, but farther north near Santa Rosalia, a new surge of north winds was detected. The latest numerical model forecasts show this new surge of north flow making its way steadily southward today and likely reaching us by mid-late afternoon. Infrared satellite loops show clear skies across our region, and while we will likely see rideable winds with an early afternoon thermal bump, it may be a relatively late show as the new surge of north background flow arrives. Model forecasts are once again in excellent agreement that surface high pressure centered over Idaho this morning will build southeastward on Wednesday, with solid north background flow continuing over BCS. We’ll get a couple of rest days on Thursday and Friday as the surface pressure gradient becomes weak, with only light onshore breezes expected. Long-range model forecasts show surface high pressure over British Columbia will build into the interior west of the U.S. on Saturday, with a fresh pulse of north flow making its way down the Sea of Cortez. Solid north flow will likely continue at least through Sunday and possibly into Monday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind building to 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A pass by one of the polar orbiting satellites around midnight showed yesterday’s strong north background flow had decreased overnight, with 10 knot NW winds detected over the southern Sea of Cortez. Although the background flow will be substantially less today, several model forecasts do show just enough remaining to help jump-start our local wind machine. A band of high clouds over us this morning will quickly move eastward and leave full sunshine by midday, so we’ll also get a substantial thermal boost this afternoon. Surface high pressure centered over the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. today will build southeastward on Tuesday, with the surface pressure gradient tightening over BCS and north flow increasing. Some thin, high clouds may stream over from time to time, but enough filtered sunshine should make it through to give us a good thermal boost as well. The surface high will then move rapidly southeastward into western Texas on Wednesday and maintain a solid north background flow over our region. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that the background flow will then rapidly weaken on Thursday, with summerlike onshore breezes expected both Thursday and Friday. A new surface high is then forecast to build into the 4-corners region of the U.S. just in time for the weekend, with solid north background flow returning on Saturday and continuing through at least Sunday.

• Today…Some morning high clouds, then becoming sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

Nerd Note: A potentially catastrophic event is unfolding for the island nation of Jamaica, as a hurricane hunter aircraft early this morning showed hurricane Mellisa has become a category 5 storm with sustained winds of 160 mph. The storm is expected to make landfall on the southernwestern coast of Jamaica tonight. Here is a visible satellite image from just after sunrise showing the dark, clear eye, and sunlight reflecting off the western eyewall showing the spectacular stadium effect as the eyewall flares outward with height.

Note: I will be out of network range on Saturday, so the forecast will not be updated until Sunday morning.

¡Buenos dias! Satellite passes last evening measured south winds of around 5 knots over much of the southern Sea of Cortez. A relatively weak area of high pressure was centered near Salt Lake City early this morning, and model forecasts are in good agreement that this feature will build south…southeastward today, bringing marginal NNE background flow to our region by mid afternoon. It’ll likely be one of those days right on the edge of rideable, as models also show full sunshine is expected. The weak surface high is then forecast to build into western New Mexico on Saturday and further tighten the surface pressure gradient over BCS, with north background flow increasing here. Solid north flow is expected to continue through Sunday as the surface high remains nearly stationary to our north, and with another sunny day expected, we should see a windy afternoon. Forecast models are in good agreement that a new area of high pressure will build into the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. on Monday, then into the interior west of the U.S. on Tuesday. This will likely keep solid north background flow over BCS through at least Tuesday and with sunny skies expected our local thermal should be in fine form each afternoon. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient will become weak on Wednesday, with light background flow continuing into Thursday.

• Today…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph…maybe more.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! After another 5+ hours of great conditions yesterday, today will be a rest day as a satellite pass late last evening confirmed model forecasts of relatively light background flow over the southern Sea of Cortez. Models show a weak surface high will begin to build into the western U.S. on Friday, but it looks like only marginal northeast flow at best will reach us. The surface high is forecast to move into the 4-corners region on Saturday, and this should tighten the surface pressure gradient over BCS just enough to jump start our local wind machine. Model forecasts are in good agreement that sufficient north background flow should then last for several days as a weak ridge of high pressure remains to our north. Long-range forecasts indicate that winds may become marginal again by next Wednesday.

• Today…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Yesterday was a ‘chamber of commerce’ day, as the wind gauge at the campground measured 18-23 mph sustained winds for a solid 6 hours from around 11 am until 5 pm. A satellite pass late last evening measured background flow of 10-15 knots over the Sea of Cortez east of Cerralvo, and although the latest forecast models show the background flow will decrease today, there will likely be plenty of north flow remaining for another good day. Satellite loops early this morning indicated another sunny day ahead, so once again our wind machine should kick by midday. Surface high pressure centered over Colorado this morning will weaken rapidly tonight, and the surface pressure gradient will become very weak over BCS on Thursday, with only light onshore flow expected. Model forecasts show surface high pressure building back into the interior west of the U.S. on Friday, with marginal north to northeast background flow returning to our area. At this point the weekend looks good, with NNW background flow increasing Saturday and lasting into Sunday, and with mostly sunny skies expected, we should see substantial thermal boosts each day. At this point long-range model forecasts show sufficient north flow may continue through Tuesday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An evening satellite pass measured solid NNW winds of 10 knots over much of the southern Sea of Cortez. The latest batch of model forecasts shows that background flow will increase a bit today as surface high pressure centered near Salt Lake City early this morning builds southeastward and the surface pressure gradient over BCS tightens. Infrared satellite loops indicated only a few patches of mid-level clouds to our east, and model forecasts show only a few thin, high clouds possible late this afternoon so our local thermal should be in fine form. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to weaken on Wednesday, but at this point it looks like we’ll still see sufficient background north flow to help trigger another windy afternoon. Thursday looks like a down day, as models show only light onshore flow. A relatively weak surface high pressure system is then forecast to build into the interior west of the U.S. on Friday, with marginal north background flow returning to our region. The weak surface high will then build into the 4-corners region on Saturday, with north flow likely increasing a bit here. At this point it appears that solid north flow will continue through Sunday, with winds deacresing again on Monday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An overnight satellite pass measured NNW winds of 10-15 knots over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo. While the latest numerical model forecasts show the background flow will be less than we saw yesterday, it now appears that there will still be enough this afternoon to help trigger our local wind machine. Mid-level clouds this morning are forecast to move off to the north by around midday, so we should get a substantial thermal boost as well. Surface high pressure centered over the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. this morning is forecast to build quickly southeastward into the 4-corners area on Tuesday and tighten the surface pressure gradient over BCS. With full sunshine expected on Tuesday, we should see our thermal in fine form (see nerd note below). Just enough north flow should last into Wednesday to give us one more rideable day, then the surface pressure gradient will likely become weak, leaving us with light winds Thursday into Friday. Long-range model forecasts show a weak ridge of high pressure may form just to our north, with some north background flow possibly returning Saturday and Sunday.

• Today…Some morning clouds then becoming mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18mph.

Nerd Note: Several of you have asked if the very green desert we have now, especially compared to last year, will affect our local thermal this year. The answer is yes, but it remains to be seen how much. It is well documented that a green surface stays substantially cooler than a bare surface. This is primarily due to a process called transpiration, where liquid water is evaporated from plant tissues. A phase change from liquid water to water vapor requires a large amount of heat, and as transpiration occurs, it tends to cool the surrounding air and with cooler air, our local thermal would be weaker. That’s the science of it, and it’ll be interesting to see how significant the effect is here. So far so good, as the thermal boost to the background flow we saw yesterday was very similar to what we saw last season.

¡Buenos dias! The wind gauge at the campground yesterday showed a relatively unusual profile, as winds made a very slow climb to around 14 mph with gusts to 16 mph by around 2 pm, then began a steeper climb around 3 pm, reaching a peak of 17 mph with gusts to 21 mph fairly late at 5 pm. A series of polar orbiting satellite passes yesterday afternoon showed yesterday’s late show was driven by a substantial increase in the background flow, as opposed to our normal thermally-driven peak. An Oceansat satellite pass shortly after midnight last night showed solid 15 knot NNW background flow just east of Cerralvo, and recent model forecasts show similar background flow will continue today. Infrared satellite loops early this morning indicated clear skies across our region, so with full sunshine expected, we will likely see a significant thermal boost much earlier than yesterday’s late show. Models forecasts show that the remainder of the week will bring an on again…off again pattern as surface high pressure to our north weakens and builds again. At this point Monday looks marginal, but we will likely see another solid pulse of north background flow on Tuesday. The middle of the week will likely again see marginal conditions, then another pulse of north flow may arrive on Friday. At this point Saturday looks like another light wind day.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.