La Ventana Stories

¡Buenos dias! An overnight pass by the Indian Oceansat satellite showed north winds over the Sea of Cortez had pushed as far south as Loreto, and all of the latest numerical model forecasts show north background flow becoming established over all of the southern Sea of Cortez this afternoon. Infrared satellite loops showed clear skies in our region, and this will set the stage for a significant thermal boost as well. Surface high pressure currently centered over the Pacific Northwest of the U.S will move rapidy southeastward on Sunday, and this will tighten the surface pressure gradient over BCS, and with full sunshine expected we should see a windy afternoon. Model forecasts show that the rest of the upcoming week will see a series of storm systems affecting southwestern Canada and the Pacific Northwest of the U.S., with surface high pressure over the interior west of the U.S. building and weakening slightly as storms pass to the north. At this point it looks like Monday and Wednesday will see the weakest background flow, but otherwise the global models show enough north flow over the southern Sea of Cortez to bring us rideable days through Friday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. Northeast wind 14-16 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Well, there’s good news and bad news. First the bad…the wind forecast for today looks significantly lighter. An overnight satellite pass measured light and variable winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, and although some of the latest model forecasts do show the background flow becoming northerly by around midday, significant low cloud cover is expected over the plains this afternoon and that will likley keep our local wind machine from really kicking in. Now the good…models continue to show surface high pressure building into the interior west of the U.S. this weekend, with a tightening surface pressure gradient over BCS. Sufficient north flow is now expected to continue through at least Tuesday, so we should see a nice stretch of kiteable days. Long-range model forecasts disagree, but we may see marginally rideable winds through Thursday…stay tuned.

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. Northeast wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Yesterday afternoon the wind gauge at the campground peaked at sustainted winds of 17 mph with gusts to 20 mph (big thanks for the ground truth there). Satellite-derived winds late last evening showed NNW winds of around 10 knots over much of the central and eastern Sea of Cortez, with typical summer-early fall overnight west flow closer to Cerralvo. The latest numerical model forecasts for today show weaker north background flow than yesterday, with a northeast to east wind developing this afternoon. That said it’ll be close, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see kiteable winds for a few hours during the afternoon. As surface high pressure builds into the western U.S. on Friday, we should see a bit more north background flow…possibly enough to help fully trigger our local wind machine. At this point the weekend is looking good, as the surface high centered far to our north continues building into the interior western U.S. and the surface pressure gradient tightens over BCS. Long-range model forecasts agree that by Monday the surface pressure gradient over BCS will weaken as we are caught between high pressure centered far to our north over Oregon, and a weak tropical system near Socorro Island far to our south. At this point the vast majority of model forecasts show the tropical system will continue moving westward and pass far to our south (see nerd note below), with only a few clouds streaming in Monday through Wednesday. The high centered over Oregon on Monday is forecast to rapidly build southeastward on Tuesday, with north background flow likely returning here. Although the surface pressure gradient is then forecast to weaken on Wednesday, we may see just enough north flow remaining for one more kiteable day.

• Today…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.

Nerd Note: Most of the computer model forecasts for tropical cyclone track and intensity use a vast array of current observations and complex physics to predict the future path and intensity of these storms. Google DeepMind has recently launched a model that takes a different approach. Using AI and a huge dataset of past storms and surrounding atmospheric conditions, Google’s Weather Lab predicts up to 50 solutions for the path and intensity of any tropical cyclone worldwide. Their method has shown great promise, and is being used experimentally as part of the forecast arsenal at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. I’ve attached a couple of links in the comments (note…facebook now deletes most external links embedded in a post, so a work-around is to put it in the comments section).

¡Buenos dias and welcome back for another season here in beautiful La Ventana! After a couple of late-season tropical systems, north flow has finally returned, and it looks like we’ll have a good week ahead. Forecast models show surface high pressure centered far out in the Pacific will build into the interior west of the U.S. over the next several days and bring us north…northwest background flow through Saturday. Full sunshine each day should trigger our local thermal and pull any remaining west out of the background flow by early afternoon. The surface high is then forecast to continue building eastward into Colorado on Saturday and New Mexico by Sunday, bringing continued solid north background flow to BCS. The forecast gets a bit muddier on Monday into Tuesday as the tropics may again come into play. While uncertainty is high, some forecast models, including Google’s DeepMind tropical cyclone model (a powerful AI model that has shown great success), are showing the possibility of a late-season tropical system approaching BCS early next week. I want to stress that it is WAY too early to be certain, but we may see the north flow weaken substantially Monday into Tuesday.

Again, I want to welcome all of you back to MasViento, and I’m looking forward to spending another amazing season with you here in our incredible community. For those of you getting ready to make the journey south, ¡Buen viaje!

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenas tardes! As we enter into the peak of hurricane season in BCS, I want to post some information about the frequency of hurricanes here. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has assembled a history of hurricanes over both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins. Here is the link: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#ori10

The majority of landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes in BCS occur from late August until late October (note that the period of record for these maps for the Eastern Pacific Basin is 75 years).

While forecasting the long-range likelihood of a hurricane is difficult, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center does issue a Global Tropical Hazards Outlook for weeks 2 and 3 into the future. Here is the link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/…/CWlink/ghaz/index.php

This product is for general guidance only, and is not a forecast for a particular storm, but rather an outlook of the overall chances that a storm will form within a broad area. These outlooks are issued every Tuesday. The latest one shows only a slight chance for tropical cyclone formation in the East Pacific Basin during week 2, with an increased chance for week 3 as the global conditions for formation improve just south of mainland Mexico and BCS.

If a tropical storm or hurricane directly threatens BCS, I will issue daily updates based on the National Hurricane Center forecasts. Let’s hope we see 1 or 2 weak systems that will bring us some much needed rain!

See you all again here in October. Have a great summer!

¡Buenos dias! Yesterday was like a mini-norte, as the Tempest wind gauge at Rasta measured solid sustained winds of 20-24 mph for much of the afternoon, with a gust to 34 mph. While the strong north flow of yesterday has diminished, many of the most recent numerical model forecasts show sufficient north background flow will continue today. Infrared satellite loops this morning indicated only a few thin, high clouds to our southwest, so we should see a good thermal boost this afternoon. Similar conditions are forecast for Tuesday, then we will likely see the north flow decrease on Wednesday, with only marginally rideable conditions expected. The general weather pattern favors only light onshore breezes for Thursday, but a couple of the long-range models do show a relatively weak pulse of north wind on Friday. At this point it looks like only light onshore breezes for the upcoming weekend.
This will be my last forecast for the season. WOW…it has been a truly amazing season, and I want to thank all of you who have shared such kind words of encouragement along the way. It is great fun for me to bring you this forecast each morning, and I look forward to seeing you all again here next October. Have a great summer!

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.