MasViento

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satelllite pass around midnight measured NNW winds of 10-15 knots just east of Cerralvo. Surface high pressure centered off the west coast of the U.S. this morning will build eastward today and maintain a tight surface pressure gradient over BCS. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed a patch of high clouds over BCS, but all of the model forecasts show clearing skies later this morning, so we should see a good thermal boost this afternoon. Model forecasts agree that the surface high to our north will maintain solid north background flow through at least Thursday. Some high clouds will begin to stream in from the southwest on Wednesday and continue into Thursday, but models indicate there should be plenty of thin spots to allow at least some filtered sunshine in and trigger our local thermal each day. North background flow will then weaken on Friday, but just enough might remain to combine with sunny skies and give us one more rideable day. Although there are some timing differences, the long-range global models generally agree that a light wind pattern will begin on Saturday and continue through the next weekend.

(Tides)

• Today…A few morning clouds then becoming sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly cloudy. Light and variable wind.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured 15-20 knot WNW winds near Cerralvo as Pacific high pressure began building into BCS. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that the WNW background flow will gradually become more northerly by mid-afternoon today, and with only a few high clouds expected, our local thermal should be able to pull the winds onshore. The surface pressure gradient will continue to tighten on Monday as high pressure builds into the western U.S., with borderline norte condtions likely developing here with the usual gusty N to NNW winds and increasing swell. The remainder of the forecast looks to be on track, as surface high pressure to our north will keep a solid north flow going through at least Thursday. At this point it appears that we still may have just enough north background wind on Friday for one more rideable day, but Saturday looks to be a down day as surface low pressure develops far to our north.

(Tides)

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph and gusty.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A satellite pass last evening measured very light south winds near Cerralvo, and all of the latest forecast models continue to show light winds for today. Surface low pressure responsible for our light winds will move across the northern Baja Peninsula today, then surface high pressure will begin building into our region from the Pacific on Sunday. Although some model forecasts show some west component to the background flow tomorrow, I’ll be optimistic for now that full sunshine will draw the background NNW wind onshore during the afternoon. Models are in excellent agreement that surface high pressure will strengthen as it builds into the western U.S. on Monday, with low-end norte conditions developing here. The norte should subside a bit on Tuesday, but surface high pressure is forecast to remain parked over the interior west of the U.S. through Friday, with north background flow only slowly decreasing Thursday and Friday.

(Tides)

• Today…Mostly sunny. West wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight confirmed model predictions of decreasing NNW winds over the Sea of Cortez, and all of the most recent numerical model forecasts show very light background flow for today. Surface low pressure lurking off the far northern Baja Peninsula this morning will move slowly inland on Saturday, and circulation around this system will produce northwest to west background winds over BCS. Pacific high pressure will begin building into the Baja Peninsula on Sunday, with increasing NNW winds here. We will see a sunny day on Sunday, so our local thermal should be able to pull most of the west component out of the background flow, but some of the northern beaches may see some wind shadowing and gusty conditions. Surface high pressure will then build into much of the western U.S. on Monday, and with a tightening surface pressure gradient over BCS, we may see norte conditions develop. While norte conditions will likely subside on Tuesday, moderate north background flow is forecast to continue. The surface high is then forecast to build into the 4-corners region of the U.S. on Wednesday and remain in place through Thursday, with solid north background winds continuing here. Sunny to mostly sunny skies should trigger our local thermal as well, with an added thermal boost each day.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. West wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North/northwest wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Yesterday was a great example of the sensitivity of our local thermal to cloud cover, as we got an unexpected partial thermal bump especially at southern beaches where the campground showed 10 minute average wind speeds of 13-16 mph from around 1:30 pm until 5 pm. Satellite imagery showed a very fortunate localized clearing trend yesterday morning…lasting into the early afternoon over the plains (see image below), and that was just enough. Infrared satellite loops early this morning indicated the last of the cloud cover was moving off to the east, and with surface high pressure forecast to build into the central Baja Peninsula today, model forecasts are in excellent agreement that north flow will increase from its anemic levels of late. Unfortunately the wind party will be a short one, as model forecasts continue to indicate light winds returning on Friday as surface low pressure approaches the northern Baja Peninsula. The low will move slowly eastward on Saturday, with light winds continuing over BCS. Models continue to be in good agreement that Pacific high pressure will build into our region on Sunday, with north flow again increasing. Surface high pressure will then begin building into the interior of the western U.S. on Monday, and as this happens, the surface pressure gradient over BCS will tighten further, with norte conditions possible. Long-range model forecasts are in very good agreement that surface high pressure will remain in place to our north through at least Friday, with solid north background flow continuing.

 

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northwest wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured 10-15 knot NW winds east of Cerralvo, and while model forecasts show decreasing winds this morning, several models indicate the background flow remaining just above the threshold that would normally trigger our local wind machine…on a sunny day. Unfortunately infrared satellite loops this morning show a band of thick middle and high clouds streaming into BCS from the southwest, and all of the recent model forecasts show substantial cloud cover will continue today, and this will likely significantly dampen our local thermal. Full sunshine will return on Thursday, and as a ridge of high pressure builds over the central Baja Peninsula, north winds will increase, and an added thermal boost should bring us a windy afternoon. Thursday night into Friday a storm system just offshore of southern California will drop slowly southward to a point offshore from El Rosario, BC, then move slowly eastward across BC on Saturday. As this happens, circulation around the low will bring us generally light and variable winds both Friday and Saturday. Models are in good agreement that as the low continues eastward on Sunday, surface high pressure will begin to build into the western U.S. and Baja Peninsula, with solid north flow returning here. As the surface pressure gradient continues to tighten on Monday, we may see our first real norte (my loose definition is sustained winds of at least 20 mph that last into or through the night, together with a significant swell). Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that solid north flow will continue Tuesday and possibly through Thursday of next week.

(Tides)

• Today…Mostly cloudy. North wind 10-12 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northwest wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! As they say…close but no cigar…as a satellite pass yesterday around noon measured NNW winds over the Sea of Cortez near Cerralvo of only around 5 knots-just short of what is usually needed to fully jump-start our wind machine. Northern beaches only saw winds of around 12-14 mph for much of the afternoon, with a late peak of 15 mph around 3:30 pm. Today will present yet another forecast challenge, as while model forecasts are showing NNW background flow will increase, a band of high clouds will likely move in by late morning and at least partially dampen our local thermal. It’ll once again be close, and if we see some thin spots in the cloud cover, winds could easily be stronger than forecast. Clouds are forecast to become even thicker on Wednesday, and at this point it looks like we will have a very weak thermal at best. Full sunshine will likely return on Thursday, and as a ridge of high pressure builds into the central Baja Peninsula, north winds will increase here. Unfortunately the wind party won’t last long, as model forecasts are in good agreement that a low pressure system lurking off the southern California coast on Friday will push the surface ridge southward directly over BCS, with winds becoming very light. As the low moves slowly eastward across the northern Baja Peninsula on Saturday, our winds will likely remain light. Sunday will be a transition day, as surface high pressure will begin building back into our region with NW background flow increasing. At this point it looks like we’ll still see some west component to the winds on Sunday…stay tuned. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that surface high pressure will continue to build to our north, with solid north flow expected over BCS.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny this morning, then increasing high clouds. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly cloudy. North wind 10-12 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northwest wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North/northwest wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Substantial breaks in the high cloud cover yesterday allowed our local thermal to produce a great day, with winds at the campground averaging 16-20 mph for around 6 hours straight, peaking at 22 mph around 2 pm. An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured NW winds of 15 knots over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, but all of the latest numerical model forecasts show decreasing northwest background wind today. While all models show the winds decreasing, several do show just enough will remain and combine with sunny skies to jump start our local wind machine. A slow-moving storm system will affect southern California on Tuesday, then move into Arizona on Wednesday. The latest model forecasts show the effects of this system may stay far enough to our north to allow just enough north background flow to remain tomorrow, and possibly into Wednesday. As that system moves eastward, a ridge of high pressure located near us will retreat northward on Thursday and allow our north winds to increase. At this point it looks like we’ll see just enough north background flow remaining into Friday to give us another windy afternoon. Long-range model forecasts show a stronger storm system will move into the northern Baja Peninsula on Saturday, then continue eastward into northwestern Sonora on Sunday. Flow around this system will likely give us a significant west component to our background flow both Saturday and Sunday.

(Tides)

• Today..Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northwest wind 8-10 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Wind gauges showed a return to a more normal pattern yesterday with marginal background north flow, as the northern beaches peaked at 16-19 mph while southern beaches saw lighter winds…peaking at 14-16 mph. Both Rasta Beach and the campground did show a bimodal shape yesterday, with a notable dip in windspeed around 2:30 pm (see graph from the campground below). An ASCAT pass last evening measured NW winds of around 10 knots just east of Cerralvo, and model forecasts are in good agreement that north background flow will increase today. The wild card in today’s forecast will be the thickness of high cloud cover. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed a band of high clouds streaming in from the southwest, and model forecasts show significant high cloud cover this afternoon, so our local thermal may be at least partially dampened. For now I’ll be optimistic and say enough filtered sun will make it through to give us a good thermal boost this afternoon. Sunny skies will return on Monday and with sufficient background NNW flow remaining, we should see a windy afternoon. The forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday are tricky, and while there are significant difference in the model forecasts, they generally show low pressure tracking across the western U.S. will force a ridge of high pressure southward and turn our flow more westerly. Model forecasts show a range of solutions Thursday into Friday, but a couple of the more reliable global models show the surface ridge of high pressure will move northward on Thursday into Friday, with our winds becoming more northerly. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that surface high pressure will build into the western U.S. on Saturday and bring a new surge of north flow to BCS that could last into the beginning of next week.

(Tides)

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Again the wind gods shone on the southern beaches yesterday, as the gauge at the campground measured solid 16-19 mph winds from 1:30 until 5:30 pm while the gauge at Rasta Beach measured only 12-14 mph for much of the afternoon. A satellite pass around midnight measured NW winds of 5-10 knots near Cerralvo, and most of the latest model forecasts show another day of background flow that will be right on the edge. That said, since Thursday one of the models…the ECMWF…has shown a relatively tight N-S gradient of background flow, with lighter winds just east of the northern tip of Cerralvo, and significantly stronger background flow east of Bahia de los Muertos. Given the significantly lighter winds on northern beaches Thursday and Friday, this suggests that model is verifying well, so we could see similar conditions today. Models continue to show a ridge of high pressure building into the central Baja Peninsula on Sunday, with north flow increasing here. There will be some relatively thin, high clouds streaming in from the southwest on Sunday, but we should see enough filtered sunshine to at least partially trigger our local thermal. The forecast for Monday through Wednesday will depend on the position of the surface ridge, and for now it looks like we may get another good day on Monday, but as the ridge is nudged to the south closer to us, our flow will become more westerly Tuesday and Wednesday. Long-range models show the surface high retreating northward again on Thursday, with solid north background flow returning and possibly lasting through Friday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph…stronger south beaches.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.