¡Buenos dias! Yesterday afternoon the wind gauge at the campground peaked at sustainted winds of 17 mph with gusts to 20 mph (big thanks for the ground truth there). Satellite-derived winds late last evening showed NNW winds of around 10 knots over much of the central and eastern Sea of Cortez, with typical summer-early fall overnight west flow closer to Cerralvo. The latest numerical model forecasts for today show weaker north background flow than yesterday, with a northeast to east wind developing this afternoon. That said it’ll be close, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see kiteable winds for a few hours during the afternoon. As surface high pressure builds into the western U.S. on Friday, we should see a bit more north background flow…possibly enough to help fully trigger our local wind machine. At this point the weekend is looking good, as the surface high centered far to our north continues building into the interior western U.S. and the surface pressure gradient tightens over BCS. Long-range model forecasts agree that by Monday the surface pressure gradient over BCS will weaken as we are caught between high pressure centered far to our north over Oregon, and a weak tropical system near Socorro Island far to our south. At this point the vast majority of model forecasts show the tropical system will continue moving westward and pass far to our south (see nerd note below), with only a few clouds streaming in Monday through Wednesday. The high centered over Oregon on Monday is forecast to rapidly build southeastward on Tuesday, with north background flow likely returning here. Although the surface pressure gradient is then forecast to weaken on Wednesday, we may see just enough north flow remaining for one more kiteable day.
- Today…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
- Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
- Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
- Monday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
- Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
- Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
Nerd Note: Most of the computer model forecasts for tropical cyclone track and intensity use a vast array of current observations and complex physics to predict the future path and intensity of these storms. Google DeepMind has recently launched a model that takes a different approach. Using AI and a huge dataset of past storms and surrounding atmospheric conditions, Google’s Weather Lab predicts up to 50 solutions for the path and intensity of any tropical cyclone worldwide. Their method has shown great promise, and is being used experimentally as part of the forecast arsenal at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. I’ve attached a couple of links in the comments (note…facebook now deletes most external links embedded in a post, so a work-around is to put it in the comments section).