Author: MasViento

¡Buenos dias! The Chinese Haiyang weather satellite passed over BCS around midnight and measured 15 knot NW winds over much of the southern Sea of Cortez as a surface high pressure system remains anchored near the 4-corners region of the U.S. Model forecasts are in good agreement that the NW background flow will be temporarily weakened today as a large area of low pressure to the west of the Baja Peninsula moves north towards the west coast of the U.S. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed very thick cloud cover being drawn over our region (see below), and model forecasts indicate thick cloud cover will likely continue today with our local thermal essentially being shut down. A weather radar image from Cabo San Lucas (Mexican National Meteorological Service…see image below) at around 5 am this morning showed a large band of moderate to heavy rain about 150 km to the west, but all of the model forecasts show this area of rain will weaken as it approaches BCS, with only a few sprinkles likely here later today. The low to our west will move inland over California this evening and as drier air moves into BCS on Thursday, we will see the return of mostly sunny skies. The model forecasts are in excellent agreement that the surface high over the 4-corners area will remain essentially locked in place through the upcomong weekend and into early next week, ensuring ample north background flow here. Some thin, high clouds will continue to stream overhead from time to time each day, but sufficient filtered sun should help give us a good thermal boost as well.

 

(Tides)

• Today…Cloudy with a few sprinkles possible. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured solid 15 knot NNW winds near Cerralvo, with 20 knot winds not far from the northern tip of the island. Farther north, a full-blown norte was howling, with 30 knot winds measured just east of Loreto. Model forecasts are in good agreement that winds will subside a bit today, but ample north background flow will continue…normally more than enough to fully trigger our local wind machine. The wild-card for today will be the amount of high cloud cover. Satellite loops from early this morning showed a very large area of low pressure to our west, with a huge area of cloud cover being drawn north…northeastward towards BCS (see below). Models are in good agreement that while high clouds will move into our area today, they may be thin enough through much of the day to allow some filtered sun to at least partially trigger our local thermal. As the low moves northward on Wednesday, thick cloud cover should essentially extiguish our thermal, so only light winds are expected. The low is forecast to move onshore in southern California on Thursday, with the bulk of the clouds over BCS moving off to the east. Surface high pressure centered near the 4-corners region of the U.S. will remain nearly stationary through at least next Monday and provide solid north background flow. With only some thin, high clouds expected Friday through Monday, we should see good thermal boosts each day.

 

(Tides)

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Cloudy with a few sprinkles possible. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! There were no satellite passes last evening, so we'll have to rely solely on model forecasts for today. All of the recent model forecasts show solid north flow will continue today as strong surface high pressure located near Salt Lake City keeps a tight surface pressure gradient over BCS. Infrared satellite loops show lots of high clouds streaming in from the southwest, but most models show some thinning of the high cloud cover this afternoon so we should see at least a partial thermal boost. The surface high will move slowly southeastward towards the 4-corners area of the U.S. over the next several days and maintain ample north flow over BCS, however a storm system far to our west will push abundant cloud cover into our region Tuesday and Wednesday. We may see a few thin spots in the cloud cover on Tuesday…perhaps just enough to bring us rideable winds. Wednesday looks cloudy with a few light showers or sprinkles possible, so with no thermal expected we will likely see light winds. Clouds should move off to the east on Thursday and allow enough sun to trigger our local thermal. The surface high over the 4-corners region is forecast to remain nearly stationary from Friday through the weekend, and with only some thin, high clouds expected, we'll likely see windy afternoons each day.

(Tides)

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly cloudy. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Cloudy with a few light showers possible. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! The wind gauge at the campground yesterday showed fairly consistent winds…peaking at 17-19 mph with gusts into the low to mid 20s from around noon until just after 4 pm, while some remaining west component produced winds at Rasta that were less consistent and wind-shadowed. Model forecasts show a strong surface high pressure system centered over northern Idaho this morning will build southeastward over the next several days, with low-end norte conditions developing today and likely continuing through Monday. Although ample north flow will likely remain over BCS on Tuesday, circulation around a low pressure system far to our west will bring thickening cloud cover into our region and at least partially dampen our local thermal. Clouds and even a few light showers are likely for Wednesday, with only light winds expected. Models disagree on timing, but at this point it looks like the bulk of the clouds will move off to the east on Thursday, and with enough north background flow forecast to remain, we should see a rideable afternoon. Long-range models are in good agreement, showing a ridge of high pressure remaining far enough to our north on Friday and Saturday to keep just enough north flow over BCS to combine with mostly sunny skies and bring us windy afternoons.

(Tides)

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph and gusty.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly cloudy. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Cloudy with a few showers possible. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Thursday…Becoming sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! "Wicked weird"

, "unrideable", and "definitely never really materialized" were just a few of the printable words used to describe yesterday's winds. While a midday pass by the Oceansat satellite measured solid 15-20 knot NW winds near Cerralvo yesterday, the wind gauge at both Rasta Beach and the campground showed a significant and persistent west component…too much for our thermal to overcome. The dreaded west component was also evident in the temperature yesterday, as downslope winds helped push the afternoon high to 87 F at the campground. The good news for today is that all of the latest model forecasts show the background flow over our area becoming more northerly by this afternoon, and with only a few, thin high clouds expected, we should see a significant thermal boost. The norte still looks to be on track for tomorrow, as models agree that a strong surface high over British Columbia will rapidly build southeastward into Idaho, with the surface pressure gradient over the Baja Peninsula tightening. At this point models show the norte peaking on Monday, but it should subside on Tuesday as the surface pressure gradient weakens and significant cloud cover begins to stream in from the southwest. Model forecasts are in good agreement that thick cloud cover and even some showers are likely on Wednesday, so our thermal will be a no-show. A couple of the long-range model forecasts now show clouds will begin to move off to the east on Thursday, and with just enough north background flow forecast to remain, we may see a rideable day. The majority of the long-range models show sufficient north flow continuing into Friday, and with mostly sunny skies expected, we should see a windy afternoon.

(Tides)

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly cloudy. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Cloudy with showers possible. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Thursday…Partly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass just before midnight measured 15-20 knot winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, and the latest batch of model forecasts are in good agreement that solid NNW background flow will continue today. A few morning high clouds will quickly move off to the east, leaving sunny skies to feed our local thermal. Although most of the west component will likely be pulled onshore on southern beaches by afternoon, some of the northern beaches could see some wind-shadowing and gusty conditions near shore. Surface high pressure over Arizona today is then forecast to weaken a bit on Saturday, but we should still have ample north flow and sunshine to trigger our wind machine. Strong surface high pressure over British Columbia on Saturday will move southward into Idaho on Sunday, and the surface pressure gradient over BCS will tighten significantly, with norte conditions looking likely. Depending on the amount of high cloud cover on Monday, we may see norte conditions continue. On Tuesday circulation around a low pressure system far to our southwest will bring thickening high cloud cover to our area, but we may still see strong enough background flow for one more rideable day. As the low to our southwest slowly moves northeastward Wednesday into Thursday, models are in good agreement that abundant cloud cover will be drawn up into BCS, with a couple of models even showing some significant rainfall…stay tuned.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph…with gusty NNW winds on northern beaches.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Monday…Partly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly cloudy. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Cloudy with showers possible. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Thursday…Cloudy with showers possible. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.

Twas the morning of Christmas

And all through the bay

We hoped for good wind

One more bonus day?

 

A break in the clouds

On Wednesday brought sun

And our thermal responded

With some afternoon fun

 

The new models agree

There’s more wind on the way

Enough that some clouds

Won’t dampen today

 

A high to our north

Will continue to bring

Good wind through the week

For your kite or your wing

 

A new high will build in

To the interior west

With a norte on Sunday

And small gear will be best

 

The norte should last

Through next Monday or so

With strong winds and some swell

So just give it a go

 

As the year closes out

The north flow will get light

And we’ll see lots of clouds

With no thermal in sight

 

The New Year could bring clouds

With light rain from the west

But by then we’ll be tired

And may need a good rest

 

We know that the forecast

Can change on a dime

But regardless we’re sure

That this place is sublime

Merry Christmas from MasViento!

 

 

(Tides)

• Christmas Day…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly cloudy. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Cloudy with a few showers possible. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured NNW winds of 5-10 knots just east of Cerralvo, and all of the latest model forecasts show background flow near the lower threshold of what would normally activate our local wind machine. The biggest limiting factor today will be relatively thick cloud cover that will significantly dampen our thermal, so it looks like we'll see another afternoon of light winds. Solid north flow will return on Christmas Day, as model forecasts continue to be in excellent agreement that an elongated ridge of high pressure will extend from the northern Baja Peninsula northeastward into Arizona, and with mostly sunny skies expected, we should see a windy afternoon. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to tighten further on Friday, and with full sunshine expected our wind machine will be in fine form. Saturday looks to be another windy day as solid north background flow and sunny skies continue. Models are in good agreement that strong surface high pressure will then build into the Pacific northwest on Sunday and begin to tighten the surface pressure gradient over BCS, with low-end norte conditions developing here. Long-range models show the surface high will build southeastward into northern Utah on Monday with norte conditions likely continuing. Extended-range model forecasts then diverge significantly, but the ECMWF shows a disturbance from deep in the tropics to our southwest will move northeastward and bring thick cloud cover and perhaps even some rain to BCS on Tuesday into Wednesday…stay tuned.

(Tides)

• Today…Partly sunny. North wind 10-12 mph.
• Christmas Day…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Afternoon winds yesterday again showed a gradient north to south, with the gauge at the campground measuring winds of 12-14 mph while the winds at the Hot Springs were closer to 16 mph (personal observation). Most of the model forecasts show the background flow today will be below the magic number to fully trigger our wind machine, so it looks like very marginal winds at best at the far northern beaches. While some of the models do show a very slight bump on the background flow for Christmas Eve, an increase in cloud cover will likely counteract that. The remainder of forecast looks to be on track, as the latest model runs show an elongated ridge of high pressure will build from the northern Baja Peninsula into Arizona on Christmas Day, with increasing north flow here. The surface pressure gradient will likely tighten a bit more on Friday, with increasing north background flow. Solid north wind will continue into the holiday weekend, with norte conditions on Sunday as surface high pressure begins to build into the interior west of the U.S. The norte may subside a bit on Monday, but at least one of the long-range models shows solid north flow will continue through next week.

(Tides)

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Partly sunny. North wind 10-12 mph.
• Christmas Day…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Model predictions of marginal background flow verified well yesterday, and as is typical in that situation, northern beaches saw significantly higher winds than southern beaches, with the gauge at Rasta Beach peaking at around 14 mph, while southern beaches saw only light winds. An ASCAT pass around midnight measured NW winds of 10 knots near Cerralvo, and the most recent batch of model forecasts are in good agreement that the background wind will increase very slightly today…perhaps just enough to get rideable winds on all of the area beaches this afternoon. Sunny skies are again expected today, so we should get a sizeable thermal boost as well. Models are in excellent agreement that the background winds will again fall below the threshold to fully trigger our wind machine on Tuesday. The majority of model forecasts show light winds will continue on Christmas Eve, and with increasing high cloud cover, our local thermal will likely be partially dampened as well. As a ridge of high pressure builds into the northern Baja Peninsula on Christmas Day, NNW winds over BCS will increase substantially, and with only a few thin, high clouds expected, we will likely see a windy afternoon. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to tighten on Friday, and with full sunshine expected our local wind machine will likely be in fine form. Long-range model forecasts continue to generally be in good agreement that strong surface high pressure will build from the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. on Saturday southeastward to near Salt Lake City on Sunday, bringing norte conditions to our region. Extended range forecasts disagree on details, but it looks likely we will see solid north flow continue through the beginning of next week.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Partly sunny. North wind 10-12 mph.
• Christmas Day…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph.