La Ventana Stories

************************************Public Service Announcement**************************

HELP SAVE HOT SPRINGS BEACH!! A group of local Mexican citizens has formed a non-profit organization to fight to preserve public access to the beautiful beaches of La Ventana/El Sargento. Their first project is to save Hot Springs Beach. Please visit their website and

to preserve public access to this one-of-a-kind beach! https://www.aycpelsargento.org/en/home-english/

¡Buenos dias! A couple of polar-orbiting satellites around midnight measured widespread NNW winds of 15 knots over the southern Sea of Cortez, and the latest batch of model forecasts show solid NNW background flow will continue today. Infrared satellite loops showed clear skies over all of BCS, and with full sunshine expected today we will see another substantial thermal boost this afternoon. Surface high pressure centered near the 4-corners region of the U.S. early this morning will move southward into central Arizona today, then weaken tonight. Model forecasts are in good agreement that surface high pressure will rapidly build back into the interior west of the U.S. on Thursday and keep ample NNW background flow going over our region. The surface pressure gradient will then weaken on Friday, but at this point it looks like just enough north flow will remain to give us one more windy afternoon. Models are in good agreement that on Saturday the background flow will fall just below what is normally needed to fully trigger our local wind machine, but stay tuned as it will be close. Similar conditions are likely on Sunday, then we may see a slight increase in north flow on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure begins to build to our north.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Satellite passes last evening measured NW to NNW winds of around 10 knots near Cerralvo, with slightly stronger winds farther east. Model forecasts are in good agreement that we will see NNW background winds increase this afternoon, and with another sunny afternoon expected, we will get an added boost from our local thermal. The surface high to our north will bring ample north flow to our region through at least Thursday, and with sunny days continuing as well, we will see our streak of windy afternoons continue. The surface pressure gradient will begin to weaken on Friday, but at this point it looks like we'll still have just enough north background flow to jump-start our wind machine. Long-range models are in good agreement that a weak surface pressure gradient will then set up over BCS for the weekend, with light winds expected here. We may see a bit of a bump in the background wind on Monday, but at this point it looks marginal. Looking into the remainder of Christmas week, extended-range model forecasts are in good agreement that north winds will increase either Tuesday or Wednesday, with solid north flow then continuing through at least Saturday the 27th.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat-3 satellite pass around midnight measured NNW winds of 10-15 knots just east of Cerralvo as surface high pressure to our north kept this amazing streak of windy days going. While it sounds like a broken record…it's a good one…as model forecasts show the surface high remaining virtually stationary through Tuesday. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed clear skies over BCS, so we'll see a good thermal boost as well today. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday, and most of the models even show a bit of an uptick in the background flow. The surface high will move southward into Arizona on Wednesday, with ample north background flow continuing here. Models are now in good agreement that a new surface high will build into the interior west of the U.S. on Thursday and may be just enough to give us a marginally windy afternoon. Sunny skies and sufficient NNW background flow is forecast for Friday, but that will likely be the last windy afternoon of this current streak as long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that our winds will be light this weeekend.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 14-16 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! There were no passes by the polar-orbiting satellites last evening so we'll have to go solely with model predictions of winds today. The good news it that all of the latest numerical model forecasts show a continuation of solid NNW background wind through Wednesday, as the surface high pressure system to our north holds firm. The wild card for today will be the thickness of high clouds. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed a narrow but substantial band of high clouds approaching our area from the west, but several of the models show the thickest clouds will remain just to our northwest, with substantial filtered sun here this afternoon. Another reason to be optimistic for today is that several of the models show a slight increase in background flow this afternoon. Although some high clouds will likely remain on Monday, we should see ample filtered sunshine to once again trigger our wind machine. Full sunshine is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, and with solid NNW background flow, we should see our streak of windy days continue. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient will become weak on Thursday, with a down day likely. We might see a slight increase in winds on Friday, but very light winds will likely return again on Saturday.

• Today…High clouds this morning, then becoming mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A pass just after midnight by the Oceansat-3 satellite measured NNW winds of 10-15 knots near Cerralvo as surface high pressure centered over the interior west of the U.S. continued to keep solid NNW background flow over BCS. The latest model forecasts are in excellent agreement that this feature will hold through Tuesday, then begin to move southward and weaken on Wednesday. A few thin, high clouds will likely stream overhead on Sunday and Monday, but they should allow in enough filtered sun to trigger our local thermal each day. Long-range model forecasts indicate that a weak surface pressure gradient will set up over our region on Thursday and continue into Friday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! None of the wind-measuring satellites passed over BCS last evening, but all of the latest model forecasts show the near perfect conditions of yesterday will continue for almost another week. There may be a few thin, high clouds at times on Monday, but otherwise look for sunny skies each day, with our local thermal in fine form. The surface high that is locked in place to our north will remain there through Tuesday, then begin to move southward and weaken on Wednesday. At this point the long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that we'll see light winds on Thursday as the surface pressure gradient becomes weak.

Nerd Note: The strong ridge of high pressure parked over much of the western U.S. will continue to bring near record warmth to areas of the Sierras, while to the east, a corresponding deep trough of low pressure will allow more arctic air to plunge into the midwest of the U.S. Below is a graphic showing the forecast wind pattern and speed for Sunday at about 20,000 ft above sea level, and the National Weather Service 7-day forecasts for Kirkwood ski resort (Lake Tahoe) at 9000 ft, and for Chicago.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.

***********SWAG…SWAG…SWAG***************

Thanks to our good friends Ken and Donna, we will have a new batch of MasViento caps and t-shirts for sale today at the No Mas Basura recycle day located just behind (west and upslope) of the Farmers’ Market. Caps are $25 and t-shirts are $20. ALL profits go to No Mas Basura for the amazing work they do in our community. Come and get yours! 

¡Buenos dias! An ASCAT pass last night measured NNW winds of 15 knots near Cerralvo, and forecast models are again in excellent agreement that this latest streak of windy days will continue. Surface high pressure over the western U.S. will remain nearly stationary through at least next Tuesday and bring solid north background flow to BCS. Some thin, high clouds may tend to dampen our local thermal a bit Saturday through Monday, but we should see enough filtered sun each day to get at least a partial thermal boost. Full sunshine should return on Tuesday, and with ample north background flow continuing, we should see another windy day. The long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that the surface high will begin to weaken on Wednesday, with light winds returning as early as next Thursday.

(Tides)

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! NNW winds of 10-15 knots were measured near Cerralvo by a couple of evening satellite passes, and all of the latest model forecasts show solid NNW background flow will continue today. A few morning high clouds should move off to the east, with a significant thermal boost expected this afternoon. Models are in excellent agreement that high pressure over the western U.S. will remain locked in place through the upcoming weekend and likely through next week as well, with ample north background flow continuing over our region (see nerd note below). Some high clouds may partially dampen our local thermal on Sunday and Monday, but otherwise we should see substantial thermal boosts each afternoon.

Nerd Note: A weather phenomenon known as a blocking pattern has been present over parts of the western U.S. for the past several weeks, and this pattern is expected to continue through at least next week. A large ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere over California has deflected storm systems from the Pacific northward into northern Oregon and Washington with flooding rains there, however to the south, little or no precipitation has occured since the middle of November. The first graphic below shows the wind pattern this morning at 500 millibars, which is around 20,000 feet above sea level. Note the large ridge over California and the deep trough over the eastern U.S. By Friday, December 19, the ridge is still in place (second graphic), but extended range model forecasts are showing the possibility of a pattern change by Christmas week (third graphic), with rain and snow possibly returning to California.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! A partial pass by one of the ASCAT satellites last evening measured NNW winds of 15-20 knots near Cerralvo, and model forecasts are in excellent agreement that solid NNW background flow will continue today. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed a few patches of thin, high cloud moving in from the southwest, but forecasts show we should see plenty of sunshine this afternoon. There was still enough of a west component to the winds yesterday afternoon that produced gusty, uneven winds near shore at the northern beaches, but mid afternoon winds were stronger and much steadier about a 1/2 mile offshore (personal observation). Several of the model forecasts show a bit less west component to the background flow today, so hopefully we'll see better quality winds there today. The forecast through the upcoming weekend remains unchanged, as model forecasts are in excellent agreement that surface high pressure will remain locked in place over the western U.S. Our background NNW flow will gradually weaken a bit beginning on Thursday, but there should be ample wind left through Monday to combine with sunny to mostly sunny skies and keep our local wind machine in fine form.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.