La Ventana Stories

¡Buenos dias! Wind gauges showed a return to a more normal pattern yesterday with marginal background north flow, as the northern beaches peaked at 16-19 mph while southern beaches saw lighter winds…peaking at 14-16 mph. Both Rasta Beach and the campground did show a bimodal shape yesterday, with a notable dip in windspeed around 2:30 pm (see graph from the campground below). An ASCAT pass last evening measured NW winds of around 10 knots just east of Cerralvo, and model forecasts are in good agreement that north background flow will increase today. The wild card in today’s forecast will be the thickness of high cloud cover. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed a band of high clouds streaming in from the southwest, and model forecasts show significant high cloud cover this afternoon, so our local thermal may be at least partially dampened. For now I’ll be optimistic and say enough filtered sun will make it through to give us a good thermal boost this afternoon. Sunny skies will return on Monday and with sufficient background NNW flow remaining, we should see a windy afternoon. The forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday are tricky, and while there are significant difference in the model forecasts, they generally show low pressure tracking across the western U.S. will force a ridge of high pressure southward and turn our flow more westerly. Model forecasts show a range of solutions Thursday into Friday, but a couple of the more reliable global models show the surface ridge of high pressure will move northward on Thursday into Friday, with our winds becoming more northerly. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that surface high pressure will build into the western U.S. on Saturday and bring a new surge of north flow to BCS that could last into the beginning of next week.

(Tides)

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Again the wind gods shone on the southern beaches yesterday, as the gauge at the campground measured solid 16-19 mph winds from 1:30 until 5:30 pm while the gauge at Rasta Beach measured only 12-14 mph for much of the afternoon. A satellite pass around midnight measured NW winds of 5-10 knots near Cerralvo, and most of the latest model forecasts show another day of background flow that will be right on the edge. That said, since Thursday one of the models…the ECMWF…has shown a relatively tight N-S gradient of background flow, with lighter winds just east of the northern tip of Cerralvo, and significantly stronger background flow east of Bahia de los Muertos. Given the significantly lighter winds on northern beaches Thursday and Friday, this suggests that model is verifying well, so we could see similar conditions today. Models continue to show a ridge of high pressure building into the central Baja Peninsula on Sunday, with north flow increasing here. There will be some relatively thin, high clouds streaming in from the southwest on Sunday, but we should see enough filtered sunshine to at least partially trigger our local thermal. The forecast for Monday through Wednesday will depend on the position of the surface ridge, and for now it looks like we may get another good day on Monday, but as the ridge is nudged to the south closer to us, our flow will become more westerly Tuesday and Wednesday. Long-range models show the surface high retreating northward again on Thursday, with solid north background flow returning and possibly lasting through Friday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph…stronger south beaches.
• Sunday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! In a complete reversal of fortune from Wednesday, wind gauges yesterday showed solid north winds of 16-19 mph from around 11 am until 2:30 pm at the campground, while the gauge at Rasta Beach measured an equivalant 10 minute average wind of only 12-14 mph from around 10 am until around 3:30 pm. An evening pass by one of the ASCAT satellites measured NW winds at 5 knots over the Sea of Cortez near Cerralvo, with NNW winds at 10 knots to the south. Model forecasts are in good agreement that a ridge of high pressure over the central Baja Peninsula and a weak trough of low pressure over the far southeastern Sea of Cortez will combine to tighten the surface pressure gradient and should produce ample north background flow this afternoon over the far southern Sea of Cortez east of the East Cape, northward to Cerralvo Island, with light winds farther north. Model forecasts show that the north background flow may decrease just a bit tomorrow, but with full sunshine expected we may see rideable conditions. The surface ridge to our north is forecast to strengthen on Sunday, with increasing north flow here. It now appears that we may see a bonus day on Monday, as models show the ridge to our north holding fast. Low pressure will move from California into the interior southwest of the U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday, and this will likely push the ridge southward and produce a strong west component in our background wind. Long-range models show surface high pressure again building to our north on Thursday with another pulse of north flow reaching BCS.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Partly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! As is often the case with marginal background north wind, yesterday was a tale of 2 bays, as northern beaches peaked at 16-19 mph while the wind gauge at the campground showed 13-16 mph (sometimes only 12 mph). Model forecasts for today show a variety of solutions, but a couple of the more reliable ones show the background north flow falling below the level to fully trigger our afternoon wind machine. Models are in better agreement that Friday will see sufficient north flow to give us a windy afternoon, but Saturday will again be in that zone of maybe yes…maybe no. A weak ridge of high pressure is still forecast to form over the central Baja Peninsula on Sunday, with increasing north flow here. Long-range model forecasts show a slow-moving storm system over California on Monday will push the surface high to our north southward, with our winds becoming more westerly. The low over California will move only slowly eastward on Tuesdsay into Wednesday, so we may see a prolonged period of winds with a significant west component.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass just after midnight measured W to NW winds of 5-10 knots north and east of Cerralvo. Surface analysis showed a relatively weak high pressure system centered over the 4-corners region of the U.S. this morning, and model forecasts show this feature will remain nearly stationary through Saturday. Although the location of the surface high is favorable for substantial north flow over BCS, the weakness of this feature in model forecasts will likely produce only marginal background north flow today through Saturday, and confidence is low that we’ll see enough to fully trigger our local wind machine. That said, sunny to mostly sunny skies could energize our local thermal just enough to bring rideable conditions so best to be ready just in case. Model forecasts are in good agreement that a ridge of high pressure will build into the central Baja Peninsula on Sunday and may give a boost to the north background flow here. Long-range model forecasts generally agree that the ridge of high pressure to our north will then migrate southward over BCS on Monday into Tuesday, with our winds become more westerly.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Saturday…Mostly sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. Northwest wind 8-10 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 8-10 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An evening pass by one of the ASCAT satellites measured west winds at around 5 knots just to the east of Cerralvo, and all of the latest numerical model forecasts show light background flow continuing for today. A relatively weak surface pressure gradient will remain over BCS for the next several days, with generally light winds. There is some indication that we may see a very slight bump in the background flow on Wednesday and Friday, but confidence is low. A weak surface low pressure system is forecast to move slowly across southern California and Arizona Friday into Saturday, and at this point it looks like light winds will continue through Saturday. A noticable change in the weather should occur Saturday night into Sunday as much cooler air will finally move into BCS (see nerd note below). As that happens, a narrow ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to our north with background north flow increasing on Sunday. The north pulse may be short-lived, with light winds returning next Monday.

Today…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
Thursday…Sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
Friday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
Saturday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
Monday…Sunny. Northwest wind 8-10 mph.

Nerd Note: As I mentioned several days ago, long-range global models have been forecasting a major shift in the middle and upper level weather pattern, with much cooler air forecast to finally move into BCS around the middle of November. These forecasts have held, and we should see a noticable cool down here Saturday night into Sunday. The graphics below show the air temperature at around 5000 ft today, with abnormally warm air over much of the western U.S. and Baja Peninsula as a persistent ridge of high pressure remains in place. Notice the trough off the west coast of the U.S., with much cooler air shown in blue. Fast-forward to Sunday and the trough has moved eastward over the Baja Peninsula and temperatures aloft have dropped substantially.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satelllite pass just before midnight measured widespread 15 knot NW winds over the Sea of Cortez east of Cerralvo. While all of the latest model forecasts show the background flow will decrease today, there will still be ample north flow to combine with full sunshine and bring us another windy afternoon. Surface high pressure anchored to our north will weaken further on Tuesday, and only marginal north flow is forecast for our region Tuesday through Thursday. It’ll be close each day…stay tuned. Surface low pressure is then forecast to track across the southwestern U.S. and into northeastern Mexico Friday into Saturday, and circulation around this system will bring us northwest to west background flow. As the low continues eastward on Sunday, long-range forecasts show a return of north flow to BCS.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. West wind 12-14 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satelllite pass just after midnight measured 10 knot NW winds over the Sea of Cortez east of Cerralvo. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that surface high pressure centered near Salt Lake City this morning will build slowly southward today, with the surface pressure gradient tightening over BCS. As a result, north background flow will increase substantially, and with sunny skies expected, our local thermal will give an added boost. Ample north flow will continue on Monday, with our afternoon thermal giving us another windy afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will become weak on Tuesday, and at this point it looks like the resulting north background flow will fall to just below what normally triggers our wind machine. A couple of model forecasts show a small increase in the background flow on Wednesday and Thursday, but it’ll be close. Long-range forecasts are in good agreement that surface low pressure will track across the southwestern U.S. Friday into Saturday with westerly flow developing across BCS.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. West wind 12-14 mph.

¡Buenos dias! The wind gauge at Rasta yesterday showed a very slow climb from around 1 pm until around 2:30 when it reached a steady 12-14 mph for around an hour, giving several of us a nice foil session. We will likely see a similar day today, as model forecasts show the background north flow teetering right on the edge of what is normally needed to fully trigger our local wind machine. In situations like this we usually see the best chances for rideable winds on the north beaches. Sunday will see a significant increase in north background flow as models are in good agreement that an expansive surface high pressure system will build southward from Canada into much of the U.S. Monday will likely see a continuation of solid north flow and with another sunny day expected, our local thermal should be in fine form. The surface pressure gradient is then forecast to weaken rapidly on Tuesday, leaving us with only marginal north flow at best. Models are then hinting at a slight increase in winds for Wednesday and Thursday and with continued sunny days expected, we could see rideable conditions. Long-range model forecasts are in good agreement that Friday will likely see only light onshore breezes.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph, lighter south beaches.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Tuesday…Sunny. North wind 12-14 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. East wind 10-12 mph.