MasViento

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass late last evening measured NW winds of 10 knots over the southern Sea of Cortez, and all of the latest numerical model forecasts show the background flow decreasing a bit today. It’ll be close again, but it looks like there will be just enough north flow remaining to help trigger our wind local machine. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed some patches of high cloud streaming in from the southwest, but model forecasts indicate that we will likely see plenty of sun this afternoon, so we should see a significant thermal boost. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to weaken further on Sunday, with light winds expected here as a result. Similar conditions will likely persist through Monday with only light onshore breezes expected. Model forecasts are in good agreement that surface high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build eastward slightly into the Baja Peninsula on Tuesday, and depending on where the E-W oriented ridge sets up, we could see either too much west in the background flow if the ridge is too close to us or good north flow if it sets up farther to our north. For now, it looks like there will be a substantial west component to the winds on Tuesday, but Wednesday may see the flow becoming more northerly. Long-range models show similar uncertainty in the position of the ridge of high pressure for Thursday and Friday, but for now I’ll be optimistic that the axis of the ridge will be just to our north and we’ll see ample north background flow.

• Today…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Monday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North…northwest wind 12-14 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Friday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Yesterday was a great example of just how sensitive our local wind machine is to the strength of the background flow. As I mentioned in yesterday’s discussion, the model forecasts showed winds just below the threshold to fully trigger it, but as those of us that were at Rasta yesterday know, while winds struggled to exceed the 10-12 mph range early in the afternoon, winds increased to around 16 mph from around 1:30-3:30, with higher winds farther north towards playa aguas calientes (personal observation). The wind gauge at the campground showed another light wind day, with only 10-12 mph sustained winds. Just a couple mph increase in the background flow can make a world of difference and sometimes bring us a great bonus day. The latest model forecasts are spreading the wind love to the entire bay today, as surface high pressure in the eastern Pacific builds into BCS. Ample background flow will likely last through Saturday, and with sunny skies expected, we should see another good thermal boost. Model forecasts are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient will become very weak over our region on Sunday, with light background flow the result. Similar conditions are expected on Monday, then surface high pressure will begin to build back into BCS on Tuesday, but at this point models show a significant west component to the wind. Long-range forecasts are in good agreement that ample north flow will return on Wednesday and may last through the following weekend.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Thursday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Satellite-derived winds of 5-10 knots were noted east of Cerralvo early this morning, but all of the latest model forecasts show the background flow today will be just below the threshold for fully activating our wind machine…less than we saw yesterday when northern beaches had a beautiful thermal. Surface high pressure is forecast to build into the Baja Peninsula on Friday and give us a bump in north flow which may last through Saturday. Light winds are forecast to return on Sunday as the surface pressure gradient again becomes weak. Light winds will likely last through Monday, then there are indications we may see another slight increase in north flow on Tuesday. While long-range models disagree, an active storm track across California may form by the middle of next week and bring us a light wind regime.

• Today…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Monday…Partly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Wednesday…Mostly sunny. Northwest wind 10-12 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An ASCAT satellite pass last evening measured light and variable winds over the southern Sea of Cortez. The forecast for the next 2 days is a low-confidence one, as the latest numerical model runs continue to show the background north flow over our area will be at or just below the lower threshold for triggering our wind machine. There are some indications that we may get a slight increase in the north flow today, and it looks like northern beaches will have the best chance to see kiteable winds this afternoon. Models show the background north flow remaining very near the lower threshold tomorrow, so it’ll likely be another nail-biter. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to tighten a bit on Friday, and this will likely bring the best chance for a windy afternoon for the next several days. Model forecasts are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient will again become very weak on Saturday, with similar conditions lasting into Monday. Long-range forecasts show some hope of significant north flow returning on Tuesday.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph (north beaches).
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 14-16 mph (north beaches).
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Monday…Partly sunny. Northeast wind 8-10 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! Northern beaches got a nice bonus day yesterday as sustained winds peaked at around 16 mph from 3-4 pm, while southern beaches only saw 10-12 mph with a 20 minute peak of 13 mph.

An ASCAT satellite pass last evening measured light and variable winds over the southern Sea of Cortez, and the latest model forecasts show only light ENE winds for much of the bay this afternoon. For folks jonesing for another light wind session, it may be a summer-like day at La Bufadora where winds could peak at 12-14 mph from around 12-2 pm. The forecast for Wednesday and Thursday remains a low-confidence one, as the background flow flirts with the lower threshold to fully jump-start our local wind machine. Full sunshine will help the cause, and at this point several of the more reliable models indicate it’ll be a go so I’ll continue to be optimistic. Surface high pressure over the eastern Pacific is forecast to build into the Baja Peninsula a bit on Friday, with better chances of solid north background flow. The models then disagree on whether we’ll see sufficient north flow continuing through the weekend, but again a couple of the more reliable models say yes. Long-range models show surface low pressure may form over the southwestern U.S. by Monday, with winds becoming lighter here.

• Today…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. Northeast wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 14-16 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An ASCAT satellite pass last evening measured WNW winds of 5 to 10 knots over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, and model forecasts show the background flow will likely be just below the lower threshold for fully triggering our local wind machine today. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed an area of thin, high clouds streaming into BCS from the west, and these will likely partially dampen our local thermal as well. That said, it’ll be very close, and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model shows marginally kiteable wind (12-14 mph?) along the northern beaches for a couple of hours early this afternoon. Model forecasts are in excellent agreement that we will see very light background flow on Tuesday, with only light onshore breezes expected. The forecast for Wednesday and Thursday remains a low-confidence one, as the models show the background flow will be very near the threshold we need for kiteable winds, but at this point I will continue to be optimistic. Sunny skies will be in our favor both days, so if we are lucky we may see things come together. The latest model runs are in good agreement that surface high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build into BCS on Friday and increase the north flow over our area. At this point it looks like solid north flow will continue through next weekend, and with sunny skies expected, we should see good thermal boosts each day. Looking farther into the future, both the European and American long-range forecasts show a favorable weather pattern setting up for sufficient north flow into the middle of February, so our AMAZING 2024-25 season looks like it may continue (see graph below).

• Today…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. Northeast wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.

¡Buenos dias! The surface high centered to our northwest that has brought us the latest very windy streak has weakened, and an Oceansat satellite pass around midnight confirmed that the NNW background flow had diminished to around 10 knots. The latest model forecasts all show similar background winds for this afternoon, and infrared satellite loops early this morning indicated another sunny day ahead so we will likely see a solid thermal boost. The eastern Pacific surface high is forecast to weaken further on Monday, and all of the models show the background flow falling below the threshold that typically would help jump start our local wind machine. Similar light background flow is forecast to continue on Tuesday, with only light onshore breezes expected during the afternoon. The forecast for Wednesday through Saturday is a tricky one, as most of the latest model guidance shows the east Pacific high pressure system strengthening just enough to increase our north background flow a bit, and with sunny skies expected through the period, we could see kiteable winds each day. For now I’ll be optimistic but confidence is low.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. Northeast wind 16-18 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass just after midnight measured NNW winds of 15 knots just east of Cerralvo, and all of the latest numerical model forecasts show similar winds will continue today. While models do indicate some wind shadowing may continue on northern beaches, the wind quality should be better there than the last 2 days. Infrared satellite loops early this morning showed a sunny day ahead, so our local thermal should be able to pull the winds onshore along the southern beaches by mid afternoon. The surface high anchored over the eastern Pacific will continue to weaken on Sunday, but all of the latest model runs show enough background north flow will continue to give us another windy afternoon, with winds finally returning to having a slight onshore component along all area beaches. A series of storm systems will impact California over the next week (see nerd note below), and as a result the surface pressure gradient over BCS will become weak on Monday, with only light winds expected here. The background flow is forecast to remain light on Tuesday, with only light onshore breezes expected during the afternoon. The forecast for Wednesday through Friday is a low-confidence one at this point, as long-range models disagree on the details which will control our local winds. For now, it appears most likely that Wednesday will be another light wind day, but we may see just enough background north flow return on Thursday into Friday to help jump start our local wind machine.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. Northeast wind 12-14 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

Nerd Note: A series of 3 storm systems is forecast to impact much of northern California over the next week, with periods of moderate to heavy precipitation. Below is a map showing the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center’s forecast for total precipitation over the next 7 days. Some areas of the northern Sierra could see total liquid equivalent (combined rain and snow) amounts of 15 to 20 inches! Total snowfall for the high Sierra above 7000 to 8000 feet could exceed 10 feet.

¡Buenos dias! Wind gauges confirmed that yesterday was the windiest day of the season so far, with 10 minute average sustained winds reaching 24 mph at the campground, and 10 second average gusts to 34 mph (37 mph at Rasta Beach). Wind direction averaged 0 to 5 degrees at Rasta with very gusty, wind-shadowed conditions, while the direction at the campground averaged 10-15 degrees with a bit steadier winds. An Oceansat satellite pass just before midnight measured NNW winds at 20-25 knots over the southern Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, and all of the latest numerical model forecasts show similar wind speeds will continue over the open Sea of Cortez today. There are once again indications that significant wind-shadowing will occur on northern beaches, while southern beaches will likely see more consistent winds, albeit with significant gusts at times. All of the model forecasts show the strong surface high over the eastern Pacific will begin to weaken on Saturday, but solid NNW background flow will continue, and with another sunny day expected, we will see an added thermal boost as well. The surface high centered to our northwest is forecast to continue to weaken on Sunday, but enough north background flow should continue and combine with another sunny day to give us one more windy afternoon. Models are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient over BCS will become very weak on Monday and continue through Wednesday, with only light winds expected. Long-range model forecasts show a weak surface high over the eastern Pacific may bring a return on just enough north background flow on Thursday to help jump-start our local wind machine.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Thursday…Sunny. North wind 16-18 mph.

¡Buenos dias! An Oceansat satellite pass around midnight measured 15-20 knot NNW winds over the Sea of Cortez just east of Cerralvo, and all of the most recent numerical model forecasts show strong NNW background flow increasing this morning and peaking by mid afternoon. The big question will be if our local thermal will be able to pull most of the west component out of the background flow this afternoon. The HRRR model which has the finest resolution shows some west component remaining over the northern half of the bay through the afternoon, so winds on northern beaches will likely be very gusty and wind shadowed at times. The strong surface high pressure system to our northwest will remain nearly stationary and only slowly weaken through Sunday, with winds gradually diminishing each day. Model forecasts are in good agreement that the surface pressure gradient will become very weak over BCS on Monday with only light winds expected here. Long-range models show the weak surface pressure gradient lasting through Wednesday, with light onshore breezes expected.

• Today…Sunny. North wind 22-26 mph and gusty, especially on northern beaches.
• Friday…Sunny. North wind 20-24 mph.
• Saturday…Sunny. North wind 18-22 mph.
• Sunday…Sunny. North wind 16-20 mph.
• Monday…Mostly sunny. Northeast wind 10-12 mph.
• Tuesday…Mostly sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.
• Wednesday…Sunny. East wind 8-10 mph.

Note…We will be selling tickets and t-shirts today for the upcoming Baja Beach Blues concert at the No Mas Basura recycling day, just west (upslope) of the farmers’ market. ALL profits go to benefit the great work of No Mas Basura!